SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS

This document addresses opportunities and challenges facing Canada in relation to its long-term energy and climate change future. Specifically, it deals with how to, by 2050:

• Meet the energy needs of a growing economy
• Achieve substantial reductions in carbon emissions
• Improve the quality of Canada’s air

The following key findings are derived from an examination of a 2050 scenario developed by energy consultants ICF International. The National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) members approved all recommendations in this advisory note.

These findings suggest a possible path for how Canada can meet its future energy needs and address the pressing environmental challenges of climate change and clean air.

1. There can be a domestic solution to making significant greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions by mid-century, but significant reductions can be achieved only if energy is used more efficiently and if energy is produced while emitting less carbon. Energy and climate change policy in the 21st century means addressing both energy use and energy production. The question is not which technologies to deploy, but how to deploy all of the potential GHG reduction technologies. How to effectively deploy many different technologies in several sectors is an important policy issue.

• Energy use: Increasing energy efficiency is key – by doing so we could achieve approximately 40 per cent of our goal of a 60 per cent reduction in GHG emissions.

• Energy production:

  i) Oil and gas sector: Canada’s growing role as a major energy exporter is compatible with deep GHG emissions, but only if carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is perfected. Resource extraction in the 21^st century needs to take into account GHG reduction and adaptation to a carbon-constrained world economy – this benefits Canada both environmentally and competitively as a leading provider of world energy.

  ii) Electricity generation: To reduce GHG emissions by 60 per cent, the electricity sector will need to be transformed between now and 2050. As with the oil and gas sector, clean coal technology involving CCS plays an important role — this study assumes that all coal-fired generation in Alberta, and Saskatchewan will use CCS by 2050. After CCS, the largest reductions pertaining to electricity generation are from co-generation and renewables (particularly wind).

2. Urgent need for a long-term signal — The chief difficulty in significantly reducing GHG emissions is not the lack of relevant technologies – rather it is the lack of a long-term signal. Such a signal is needed to help the private sector make shorter-term investment decisions that take GHG reductions into consideration. These decisions, affecting Canada’s energy use and production infrastructure, are taken now, every day. It is important to send the appropriate signal as soon as possible. The longer we wait, the more difficult it will be.

2. Significant co-benefits — Air pollution reductions and other co-benefits in key areas will occur along with the reduction of GHG emission reduction. For instance, significant economic co-benefits through the marketing of clean energy technologies will occur. However, domestic platforms, especially for areas such as carbon capture and sequestration, need to be made a national priority.