2010: An Atmospheric Odyssey

With the new millennium mere months away, predictions about what the world will be like in 2010 are a far cry from the futuristic visions of Arthur C. Clarke's epic novel of the same name. But, according to a new assessment by scientists at Environment Canada, the state of our atmosphere will change significantly over the next decade.

Atmospheric Change in Canada: An Integrated Overview takes a holistic approach to predicting what Canada's atmosphere will be like 11 years from now based on current environmental targets. And it identifies the need to assess the whole atmosphere in developing human, social, environmental and economic strategies to cope with the expected changes.

What makes the study unique is that, instead of focusing on a particular area of study, it examines all of the relevant atmospheric issues and how they affect one another--including climate variability and extremes, climate change, acid precipitation, stratospheric ozone, ground-level ozone (smog), hazardous air pollutants, and particulates. It then uses this information to hypothesize on how changes in certain areas would affect others--for example, if oil furnaces were replaced by natural gas ones to reduce greenhouse gases, the effect it would have on acid rain and smog, and its impact on Canada's environmental goals.

So what does the future hold? Although air quality will be improved and greenhouse gas emissions reduced below 1990 levels, people will have to slap on more sun protection lotion, since stratospheric ozone will be at its thinnest level ever--with a gradual recovery anticipated beyond 2010. Temperatures are also expected to rise as global warming will be slowed but not stopped in the near future.

The report also indicates that there will be more losses from natural disasters. Over the last 30 years, the world's population has grown by 25 per cent, yet statistics from the world's largest insurance firm indicate that economic losses from severe floods, droughts, ice storms and other calamities have increased 43 per cent over the same period. Eastern Canada is particularly vulnerable to acid rain, especially during droughts, which cause re-acidification or delay the recovery of lakes. By 2010, sulphate deposition will still exceed critical loads, causing chemical changes that will lead to long-term harmful effects on ecosystems.

Although the report indicates that Canada is headed in the right direction in dealing with atmospheric change, the real work is just beginning. Unified atmospheric models and other integrated mapping assessments are needed to fully understand the linkages between the many atmospheric issues and their close relationship with weather patterns.

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