FECN09 CWIS 171800
THIRTY DAY FORECAST FOR WESTERN ARCTIC WATERS FROM MID- OCTOBER TO MID-
NOVEMBER ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 17 OCTOBER 2006.

	Mean air temperatures were above normal over most locations except 
near normal over Coronation and eastern Amundsen Gulfs. Freeze-up is 
expected to be 1 to 2 weeks later than normal except near normal from 
western Queen Maud Gulf to eastern Amundsen Gulf.

	Forecast ice conditions for October 17th to October 31st.

	A series of low pressure systems will develop over the Bering Sea 
during the last two weeks of October. This will bring periods of 
moderate to strong southeasterly winds over the Beaufort Sea during the 
second half of October and spread to the rest of the Western Arctic 
during the last week of October. Mean air temperatures will be above 
normal during the period. Freeze-up which is already under way in the 
Beaufort Sea and along parts of the Northwest Passage will progress at a 
slow pace during the last two weeks of October. Meanwhile, the main pack 
of old ice in the Beaufort Sea will remain well offshore. With moderate 
to strong southeasterly winds developing over the Beaufort Sea, areas of 
open drift to close pack new with some grey ice will prevail across the 
area. The area of new and grey ice which formed in Dease Strait and 
western Queen Maud Gulf will spread to eastern Amundsen Gulf and the 
rest of Queen Maud Gulf during the third week of October. At that time, 
new with some grey ice will develop from Victoria Strait to southern 
Peel Sound. Patches of very open drift multi-year ice will be embedded 
in the ice pack over central Victoria Strait and the extreme western 
portion of Larsen Sound. The ice which is forming over the Western 
Arctic will thicken to the grey ice stage by the end of October. Open 
water conditions will persist over the rest of Amundsen Gulf except for 
areas of new with some grey ice forming in shallow bays and inlets.

	Forecast ice conditions for November 1st to mid-November.

	Mean air temperatures will remain above normal over the whole 
Western Arctic during the first half of November. New with some grey ice 
will form over most of the western Amundsen Gulf during the first week 
of November, while grey with some greywhite ice will dominate over the 
Beaufort Sea and over the rest of the Northwest Passage. The ice will 
continue to thicken for the rest of the period to become mostly 
greywhite with some thin first year ice over most areas except for an 
area of grey and greywhite ice over western Amundsen Gulf. Patches of 
very open drift multi-year ice will be embedded in the ice pack over 
central Victoria Strait and the extreme western portion of Larsen Sound.

THIS IS THE LAST 30 DAY FORECAST OF THE SEASON.
END