SUSTAINING the ENVIRONMENT and RESOURCES for CANADIANS

What is the issue?

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities enhance the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect, thereby contributing to global climate change.

What is happening?

• In 2004, Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions reached an estimated 758 megatonnes (carbon dioxide equivalent), up 27% from 1990.
• Canada’s 2004 emissions were 35% above the target to be achieved in the period 2008 to 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol.
• Greenhouse gas emissions per person rose 10% from 1990 to 2004, while emissions per unit of Gross Domestic Product fell 14%.
• The production and consumption of energy (including from road transportation, the oil and gas industries and fossil fuel-fired electricity generators) accounted for 82% of total Canadian emissions in 2004 and 91% of the growth in emissions from 1990 to 2004.
• Alberta and Ontario had the highest greenhouse gas emissions of all provinces in 2004.

Why is it important?

Canadians are vulnerable to global climate changes that may result from increasing greenhouse gas emissions. A rise in global temperatures could lead to severe storm patterns, more heat waves, changes in precipitation, a rise in sea levels, and regional droughts and flooding. In Canada’s north, for example, the extent of sea ice can be expected to decline, which will affect northern travel, wildlife distributions and traditional hunting practices. On a national basis, agriculture, forestry, tourism and recreation could be affected, as could supporting industries and towns. Climate change is also projected to impact human health by leading to increases in cases of heat stress, respiratory illnesses and transmission of insect- and waterborne diseases, placing additional stresses on the health and social support systems.

Why is it happening?

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases help regulate the Earth’s climate by trapping heat in the atmosphere and reflecting it back to the surface. However, human activities have amplified this natural process.

The production and consumption of energy, including sources such as transportation, electricity generation, space heating and fossil fuel production and consumption, rose 30% from 1990 to 2004, and accounted for most (82%) of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2004. Greenhouse gas emissions from the oil, gas and coal industry increased 49% from 1990 to 2004, reflecting rapid growth in the production and export of crude oil and natural gas. Emissions from road transportation rose 36% over the same period as the types of personal vehicles shifted from automobiles to minivans, sport utility vehicles and small pickup trucks. Emissions from thermal electricity and heat production grew 37%, 1990 to 2004, driven by a rising demand for electricity and an increase in the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation relative to non-emitting sources.

What’s next?

Environment Canada is continuously planning and implementing refinements to the national greenhouse gas emissions inventory that will improve the accuracy of emission estimates and the quality of the indicator reported here. These refinements take into account the results of annual quality assurance and quality control procedures and reviews and verifications of the inventory, including an annual external examination of the inventory by an international expert review team (Environment Canada 2006a).

Analysis

Priorities for the future development of the indicator include better estimation methods and more data on key variables used in the emissions calculations. For example, refinements to the estimation methods and emission values for the Canadian bitumen industry within the energy sector are currently under way.

Over the longer term, improvements to transportation-related emissions estimates are also planned.

Refinements to the industrial processing sector, in particular ammonia production estimates, are under way, and efforts to update nitric acid emission factors¹are planned. Further research is under way in the agriculture sector to assess changes in methane emissions from the digestion of feed by beef and dairy cattle and the effects of irrigation and soil texture on nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils.

Surveys

In early 2006, Statistics Canada surveyed Canadian households regarding selected environmental practices, such as commuting practices and ownership of household gasoline-powered equipment. This information can provide additional context for the greenhouse gas emissions indicator. Initial results of this survey will be available in late 2006, and full results will come out in 2007. The Households and the Environment Survey will be repeated in 2007 and every second year thereafter.