Canada's Energy Future: Scenarios for Supply and Demand to 2025

We are pleased to make available Canada's Energy Future: Scenarios for Supply and Demand to 2025. We want to thank those representatives from industry, environmental groups, government agencies and related associations for their input which helped to shape the final document. More than 150 people participated in our consultation sessions and/or provided written feedback.

This report sets itself apart from previous versions by using a scenario approach to address forces, uncertainties and key issues affecting energy supply and demand in Canada. In the report, two plausible energy futures are explored. The scenarios, called "Supply Push" and "Techno-Vert", consider the pace of technology and action on the environment as the two key uncertainties that will shape Canada's energy future. Scenarios are not forecasts; they are designed to challenge our thinking and to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging issues and trends. In reviewing these trends, three key findings emerged:

Key Findings

• There are significant obstacles to changing the fuel mix or achieving large gains in energy efficiency due to the structure of the Canadian economy; energy use patterns will change slowly and Canada will continue to satisfy the majority of its energy needs from fossil fuels until 2025.
• Natural gas will be in high demand as a premium clean-burning fossil fuel however, a major uncertainty is the availability of supplies of natural gas.
• Oil sands production will increase significantly and will offset the decline in conventional crude oil production and become Canada's major source of oil supply; exports will increase considerably through 2025.

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