WTCN31 CWHX 180600 CANADIAN TROPICAL STORM INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM NDT FRIDAY 18 JULY 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT ... DANNY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 AM NDT... TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 N AND LONGITUDE 56.1 W... ABOUT 435 NAUTICAL MILES OR 805 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1010 MB. DANNY IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DANNY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH JUL 18 3.30 AM 37.3N 56.1W 1010 55 102 JUL 18 3.30 PM 39.4N 54.1W 1006 55 102 JUL 19 3.30 AM 41.6N 50.6W 1006 55 102 JUL 19 3.30 PM 42.6N 46.1W 1007 50 93 JUL 20 3.30 AM 42.0N 41.9W 1008 45 83 JUL 20 3.30 PM 40.6N 39.4W 1010 40 74 JUL 21 3.30 AM 38.4N 37.8W 1012 35 65 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK AS DANNY MOVES SOUTH OF THE GRAND BANKS. GALE WARNING MAINTAINED FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR LATE TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS NO SHIPS CLOSE TO DANNY. BEST POSITION GIVEN BY QUICKSCAT WHICH GAVE A 22 ZULU POSITION OF 35.9N 56.4W. WINDS SHOWN TO BE IN 40+ RANGE BUT LIKELY HIGHER GIVEN RAIN ATTENUATION. THE STORM IS PRESENTLY TRACKING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ROUNDING UPPER RIDGE. B. PROGNOSTIC STILL FOLLOW NHC TRACK BUT CHOSE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK BEYOND 19/12 ZULU. CDN GLOBAL VORT FIELD CONTINUES TO BE USED AS GUIDANCE IN TRACK OF DANNY. VORT MAX STILL APPEARS GOOD DUE TO DANNYS SMALL SIZE AND SMALL QPF ENVELOPE GIVING LITTLE LATENT HEATING FEEDBACK HENCE 500 MB FIELD SHOWS LITTLE DISTORTION. GLOBAL MODEL VORT MAX IS ABOUT 3 HOURS SLOWER AND A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS RUN OF MODEL. HOWEVER.. BEYOND 19/12 ZULU.. THE VORT MAX IS ABOUT 90 NM SOUTH OF PREVIOUS RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT STATISTICAL MODELS FAIRLY DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME. GFDL APPEARS TO HANDLE TRACK OF DANNY WELL AND IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR THINKING WITH REGARD TO VORT MAX. DANNY WILL TRACK ACROSS WARM 26C WATER BUT AFTER 24 ZULU TODAY..WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH COLDER WATER HENCE EXPECT WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS IT CONTINUES ITS ANTICYCLONIC TRACK AROUND UPPER RIDGE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE D. MARINE WEATHER DANNY TO PRODUCE GALES WITHIN 60-90NM NORTH OF TRACK SO SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS STILL UNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY. END CAMPBELL