WTCN31 CWHX 181800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT FRIDAY 18 JULY 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT ... DANNY TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PICKING UP SPEED.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 PM NDT... TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 N AND LONGITUDE 53.3 W... ABOUT 400 NAUTICAL MILES OR 740 KM SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1009 MB. DANNY IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DANNY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH JUL 18 3.30 PM 39.5N 53.3W 1009 60 111 JUL 19 3.30 AM 41.2N 50.4W 1009 55 102 JUL 19 3.30 PM 42.2N 46.5W 1009 50 93 JUL 20 3.30 AM 41.9N 42.6W 1011 45 83 JUL 20 3.30 PM 40.6N 40.0W 1013 35 65 JUL 21 3.30 AM 39.2N 38.4W 1016 30 56 JUL 21 3.30 PM 37.9N 37.8W 1016 25 46 DANNY REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM... VERY NEAR HURRICANE... AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY DANNY MAY PASS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE GRAND BANKS THAN INDICATED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE STORM MEANS THAT MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BRUSH ONLY THE EXTREME OUTER REACHES OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS DANNY LOOKS VERY HURRICANE-LIKE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MAY VERY WELL BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. IT BEGAN A DEFINITE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND ALSO INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED. DESPITE THIS DANNY REMAINS REMARKABLY SYMMETRIC CONSIDERING THAT IT IS NEAR 40N. WITH NO SHIP DATA WITHIN 250 NM OF THE STORM CENTRE THERE IS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO GROUND TRUTH THE WIND ESTIMATES. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN ESTIMATE OF WINDS NEAR MARGINAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IS REASONABLE. THE STORM WILL REMAIN OVER 25-28C WATER UNTIL THIS EVENING SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. B. PROGNOSTIC DANNY WILL REMAIN OVER 20 PLUS SST UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING... EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF ENCOUNTER WITH A NARROW COLD TONGUE OVERNIGHT SO NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER AT LEAST 24 HRS. OUR TRACK... DIRECTION BASED HEAVILY ON CURRENT MOTION... IS INITIALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OF NHC STATISTICAL MODELS AND FOLLOWS QUITE CLOSELY WITH 12Z GFDL. AS FOR STORM SPEED WE ARE RELUCTANT TO SPEED IT UP AS FAST AS WHAT IS HAPPENING SO THIS PACKAGE REPRESENTS A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST THAN IF WE MOVED THE STORM MORE QUICKLY. NOW THAT DANNY IS CAUGHT UP IN THE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF TROUGH INTERACTION FOR IT TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL REDEVELOPER. OF INTEREST WAS SOME MESOSCALE CYCLOGENESIS THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR SABLE ISLAND WITH A TINY EYE BEING VISIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE. D. MARINE WEATHER CHC TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL INDCIATES 11+ M WAVES BETWEEN 60-80 NM RIGHT OF TRACK OF DANNY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF THE STORM MOVES MORE QUICKLY THAN OUR TRACK INDICATES THEN GALES WILL BE EVEN LESS LIKELY IN GRAND BANKS WATERS AND TRAPPED-FETCH WAVES MAY BE 3-4 M OVERFORECAST. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 18/18Z 110 110 110 75 30 30 30 30 0 0 0 0 19/06Z 110 110 110 75 30 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 19/18Z 110 110 110 75 30 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 20/06Z 110 110 110 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20/18Z 110 110 110 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END BOWYER