WTCN31 CWHX 190000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM NDT FRIDAY 18 JULY 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT ... DANNY BECOMES SECOND HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 PM NDT...HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 N AND LONGITUDE 51.2 W... ABOUT 385 NAUTICAL MILES OR 715 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. DANNY IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DANNY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO A TROPICAL STORM BY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES ITS TURN TOWARDS THE EAST. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH JUL 18 9.30 PM 40.4N 51.2W 1006 65 120 JUL 19 9.30 AM 41.8N 48.4W 1007 60 111 JUL 19 9.30 PM 42.6N 44.5W 1008 55 102 JUL 20 9.30 AM 42.0N 41.2W 1010 45 83 JUL 20 9.30 PM 40.7N 39.1W 1012 35 65 JUL 21 9.30 AM 38.3N 37.9W 1013 30 56 JUL 21 9.30 PM 36.6N 37.9W 1015 25 46 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE OUTER REACHES OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFECT FOR THAT AREA. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS GOES IMAGERY INDICATED THAT DANNY BECAME A HURRICANE AROUND 17Z AS AN EYE BECAME EVIDENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES OVER SST OF 26+C THIS EVENING. AS WELL CIMSS SHEAR FORECAST IS FAVOURABLE FOR WEAK INTENSIFICATION. SATELLITE INDICATES A DEFINITE TURN TO THE EAST EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG SYMMETRY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. B. PROGNOSTIC MOST GUIDANCE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MOVING AROUND NORTHERN PERIMETER OF DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND OUR FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS. IN PARTICULAR THIS TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE NHC AND GFDL. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 19/00Z 110 110 110 75 30 30 30 10 15 15 15 0 19/12Z 110 110 110 75 30 20 5 0 0 0 0 0 20/00Z 110 110 110 75 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 20/12Z 110 110 110 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21/00Z 55 55 55 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CHC-TRAPPED FETCH MODEL CONTINUES INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR RESONANT WAVES OVER 10M BUT THESE WAVES WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GRAND BANKS. THIS IS CONTINGENT ON THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF STORM SPEED AND WIND SPEED. SWELLS OF 4 TO 5M ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GRAND BANKS. END BOWYER/FOGARTY