WTCN31 CWHX 031800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 03 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... FABIAN EXPECTED TO REACH CANADIAN WATERS ON SUNDAY .... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 N AND LONGITUDE 62.9 W... ABOUT 285 NAUTICAL MILES OR 525 KM NORTH OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 944 MB. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS... 17 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH FABIAN REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT FABIAN WILL BEGIN TURNING MORE NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY... REACHING THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE RESPONSE ZONE LATE SATURDAY. CURRENT LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FABIAN IS LIKELY TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT... BUT NOT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE AREAS AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 03 3.00 PM 22.8N 62.9W 944 115 213 SEP 04 3.00 AM 24.0N 64.3W 944 115 213 SEP 04 3.00 PM 25.7N 65.4W 940 110 204 SEP 05 3.00 AM 27.8N 66.3W 946 105 194 SEP 05 3.00 PM 30.1N 66.4W 953 100 185 SEP 06 3.00 AM 32.3N 66.1W 959 95 176 SEP 06 3.00 PM 34.7N 65.0W 965 90 167 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS POSITION FIXED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY WIND PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP IN WIND MODEL. STRONG OUTFLOW ON WESTERN EDGE OF FABIAN INDICATES MINIMAL SHEAR INFLEUNCE. B. PROGNOSTIC SOME LONGER RANGE COMMENTS... STRONG CONSENSUS OF MODELS REGARDING TRACK INDICATE A LONG RANGE TRACK SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. LATEST NHC TRACK FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OUT TO 72 HRS AND THEN ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. THE STRENGTH OF SHEER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH MEANS THAT FABIAN IS QUITE LIKELY TO BE WHISKED AWAY IN THE FLOW BEFORE SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AN INTERESTING TRANSITIONING SCENARIO PRIOR TO PASSING THROUGH CANADIAN WATERS BECAUSE OF THIS AS WELL AS THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH. PSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT ON A NUMBER OF MODELS... WITH ASYMMETRIES DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 120 HRS BUT REMAINING WARM CORE. ACCORDINGLY WE LIKE NHC IDEA OF KEEPING HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR A LONG TIME. OF NOTE ALSO ARE THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE. D. MARINE WEATHER NONE. END BOWYER