WTCN31 CWHX 040600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT THURSDAY 04 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADIAN WATERS ON SUNDAY.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 N AND LONGITUDE 63.3 W... ABOUT 510 NAUTICAL MILES OR 945 KM SOUTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS... 204 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 938 MB. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH FABIAN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK TODAY WITH A TURN FRIDAY TO THE NORTH AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 04 3.00 AM 23.8N 63.3W 938 110 204 SEP 04 3.00 PM 26.1N 64.6W 935 115 213 SEP 05 3.00 AM 28.7N 65.6W 935 115 213 SEP 05 3.00 PM 31.2N 65.7W 942 110 204 SEP 06 3.00 AM 34.2N 64.3W 954 100 185 SEP 06 3.00 PM 37.0N 62.3W 960 90 167 SEP 07 3.00 AM 40.3N 59.0W 968 80 148 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS NHC REPORT THAT A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO FABIAN WEDNESDAY EVENING FOUND A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 127 KNOTS AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 939 MBS. ON THIS BASIS THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KTS...STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. TRACK IS NOW MORE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST RATHER THAN ITS PREVIOUS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE STORM RETAINS AN IMPRESSIVE EYE. B. PROGNOSTIC THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD BROAD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF FABIAN EVEN OUT TO 120 HOURS. WE FOLLOW NHC OFFICAL TRACK CLOSELY AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE VARIOUS MODEL COLLECTIVE MEMBERS DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE THE THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SEABOARD OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. 00Z INITIALISATION OF BOTH CANADIAN GEM AND CANADIAN GLOBAL IS TOO FAR TO THE WEST AND BOTH MODEL TRACKS REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR TRACK OUT TO 48 HOURS. NEW GLOBAL TRACK OUT TO 120 HOURS IS NOW HOWEVER CONSIDERABLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE TRACK OF 24 HOURS AGO AND IS CLOSER TO THE COLLECTIVE CONSENSUS ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT SLOWER. THE GLOBAL'S INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS PROBABLY TOO INTENSE AND THE SUBSEQUENT TURN THE THE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNLAND IS NOT CARRIED BY OTHER MODELS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NONE D. MARINE WEATHER FABIAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT CANADIAN WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER IT WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LAURENTIAN FAN MARINE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE FOLLOW NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD STILL CARRY FABIAN AS A HURRICANE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORCASTS AND WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED TOMORROW AND SATURDAY BY THE MARITIMES WWEATHER CENTRE AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE ON THIS STORM. END PARKES/ROUSSEL