WTCN31 CWHX 041200 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY 04 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADIAN WATERS ON SUNDAY.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 N AND LONGITUDE 63.8 W... ABOUT 475 NAUTICAL MILES OR 880 KM SOUTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 944 MB. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH FABIAN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK TODAY WITH A TURN FRIDAY TO THE NORTH AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 04 9.00 AM 24.8N 63.8W 944 105 194 SEP 04 9.00 PM 27.1N 64.9W 940 110 204 SEP 05 9.00 AM 30.0N 65.6W 940 110 204 SEP 05 9.00 PM 32.4N 65.0W 942 110 204 SEP 06 9.00 AM 35.5N 63.0W 952 95 176 SEP 06 9.00 PM 37.9N 60.2W 962 85 157 SEP 07 9.00 AM 41.5N 56.0W 972 75 139 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS NHC CONTINUE RECONNAISSANCE INTO FABIAN. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING INTENSITY WAS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KNOTS... STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. FABIAN CONTINUES ON ITS NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK RATHER THAN ITS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 24 HOURS AGO. ON LATEST IR SATELLITE PICTURE A CONVECTIVE BLOOM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EYE HAS OBSCURED IT SLIGHTLY BUT THE EYE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. B. PROGNOSTIC THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD BROAD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF FABIAN EVEN OUT TO 120 HOURS. WE FOLLOW NHC OFFICAL TRACK CLOSELY AT THIS TIME...WHICH HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS TRACK AND WHICH IS TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE VARIOUS MODEL COLLECTIVE MEMBERS DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT CROSSES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SEABOARD OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. 00Z INITIALISATION OF BOTH CANADIAN GEM AND CANADIAN GLOBAL IS TOO FAR TO THE WEST AND BOTH MODEL TRACKS REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR TRACK OUT TO 48 HOURS. NEW GLOBAL TRACK OUT TO 120 HOURS IS NOW HOWEVER CONSIDERABLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE TRACK OF 24 HOURS AGO AND IS CLOSER TO THE COLLECTIVE CONSENSUS ON SUNDAY ...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT SLOWER. THE GLOBAL'S INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS TOO INTENSE AND THE SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNLAND IS NOT CARRIED BY OTHER MODELS. THE TROUGH IS BROAD AND ONLY WEAKLY MERIDIONAL AT THAT TIME AND A STRAIGHT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS MORE LIKELY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER IN THE LONG-RANGE IT IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA TO BE AFFECTED WITH HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER FABIAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT CANADIAN WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER IT WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LAURENTIAN FAN MARINE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE FOLLOW NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD STILL CARRY FABIAN AS A HURRICANE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORCASTS AND WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED TOMORROW AND SATURDAY BY THE MARITIMES WEATHER CENTRE AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE ON THIS HURRICANE. END ROUSSEL/PARKES/MARSHALL/BOWYER