WTCN31 CWHX 050000
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT THURSDAY
04 SEPTEMBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

 ... FABIAN HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE NORTH ....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.3 N AND LONGITUDE 64.6 W... ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES OR 560 KM
SOUTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 110
KNOTS... 204 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 940 MB. FABIAN IS
MOVING NORTH AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

FABIAN IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 04  9.00 PM  27.3N  64.6W   940  110  204
SEP 05  9.00 AM  29.9N  65.0W   941  110  204
SEP 05  9.00 PM  32.5N  64.8W   940  110  204
SEP 06  9.00 AM  35.4N  63.2W   949  100  185
SEP 06  9.00 PM  38.2N  60.1W   959   90  167
SEP 07  9.00 AM  41.0N  55.8W   966   85  157
SEP 07  9.00 PM  43.8N  50.8W   984   75  139

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ESPECIALLY THE AVALON
PENINSULA. THIS HINGES ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
STORM...ALTHOUGH IT IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY ALL THE TIME.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MODERATE SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH FABIAN WILL BE TURNING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND PASSING SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. IF THE
STORM TRACKS DUE NORTH FOR ONLY A SHORT TIME BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEAST THEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL BE REDUCED.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO MARINE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK OF FABIAN IT IS EXPECTED THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE GALE
TO STORMFORCE WINDS MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MARTITIME WATERS.


5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FABIAN TURNED TOWARDS THE
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER IT REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE AT
THE TURN. CONTINUING TO FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE ON ANALYSIS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE CONSENSUS
OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HRS. BEYOND THAT TIME THERE
IS SOME SPREAD HOWEVER ALL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND....NONE OF THE MEMBER MODELS ARE EVEN CLOSE TO
NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE LONG RANGE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
IT APPEARS THAT FABIAN SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR RAIN TO
BE A MINIMAL ISSUE....HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT 100 MM IS
ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS. VIGILANCE IS WARRANTED.


D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
05/00Z  210 150 120 150   130  90  60  80   100  70  40  50
05/12Z  210 150 120 150   120  80  60  80    90  70  40  50
06/00Z  210 150 120 120   110  90  60  80    80  80  40  50
06/12Z  210 150 120 120   100  80  60  80    70  70  40  50
07/00Z  180 180 120 100   120  90  50  50    70  60  30  30
07/12Z  160 210 120 100   140 120  30  20    70  60  20  10
08/00Z  160 240 120 100   160 130  20  10    70  60  10   0

CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES VERY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS TO
THE EAST SIDE OF FABIAN...ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH GRAND BANKS
OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. WW3 MODEL CONCURS WITH SIG WAVE HEIGHTS
IN EXCESS OF 15M.

END BOWYER/MCILDOON/ROUSSEL