WTCN31 CWHX 050600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 05 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... FABIAN IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 N AND LONGITUDE 64.7 W... ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES OR 405 KM SOUTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS... 204 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 941 MB. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 14 KNOTS... 26 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH FABIAN IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 05 3.00 AM 28.7N 64.7W 941 110 204 SEP 05 3.00 PM 31.5N 64.5W 941 110 204 SEP 06 3.00 AM 34.2N 63.4W 945 105 194 SEP 06 3.00 PM 36.2N 61.5W 945 100 185 SEP 07 3.00 AM 38.5N 58.2W 952 95 176 SEP 07 3.00 PM 41.3N 54.3W 972 80 148 SEP 08 3.00 AM 44.5N 47.8W 987 70 130 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ESPECIALLY THE AVALON PENINSULA. THIS HINGES ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM...ALTHOUGH IT IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY ALL THE TIME. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MODERATE SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH FABIAN WILL BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND PASSING SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. LATEST REPORTS ARE SHOWING LONG PERIODS SWELLS ALREADY REACHING THE BUOY ON THE SCOTIAN SHELF. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO MARINE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF FABIAN IT IS EXPECTED THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS AT ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT FABIAN CONTINUES TO TRACK ALMOST DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. THE EYE APPEARS TO BE BECOMING COVERED AT FORECAST TIME BUT STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES SO STRENGTH IS MAINTAINED AT 110 KNOTS. EXPANSE OF GALES AND STORM FORCE WINDS IS INFERRED FROM QUICKSCAT DATA. B. PROGNOSTIC THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK. GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES WITH MOST MODELS FOLLOWING A VERY SIMILAR TRACK. FORWARD SPEED MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TODAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE BUT IT SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN AS IT APPROACHES 40 DEGRES NORTH AND COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER 28 DEGREE C OR WARMER WATER. EVEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER WATER WARMER THAN 24 DEGREES C. HOWEVER AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. C. PUBLIC WEATHER IT APPEARS THAT FABIAN SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR RAIN TO BE A MINIMAL ISSUE....HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT 100 MM IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS. VIGILANCE IS WARRANTED D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 05/06Z 210 150 120 150 125 100 60 80 100 90 40 50 05/18Z 210 150 120 135 115 100 60 80 90 80 40 50 06/06Z 210 150 120 120 105 100 60 80 80 75 40 50 06/18Z 195 165 120 110 110 100 55 65 70 65 35 40 07/06Z 170 195 120 100 130 105 40 35 70 60 25 20 07/18Z 160 225 120 100 150 125 25 15 60 60 15 5 08/06Z 160 255 120 100 120 150 15 5 40 60 0 0 CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES VERY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE EAST SIDE OF FABIAN...ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. WW3 MODEL CONCURS WITH SIG WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 15M. END MCILDOON/ROUSSEL