WTCN31 CWHX 051800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 05 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED BERMUDA .... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 N AND LONGITUDE 65.0 W... ABOUT 45 NAUTICAL MILES OR 85 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 946 MB. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS... 26 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 05 3.00 PM 31.6N 65.0W 946 105 194 SEP 06 3.00 AM 34.2N 63.8W 946 105 194 SEP 06 3.00 PM 36.5N 61.5W 945 100 185 SEP 07 3.00 AM 38.9N 58.1W 959 90 167 SEP 07 3.00 PM 41.5N 53.6W 972 80 148 SEP 08 3.00 AM 44.5N 47.8W 987 70 130 POST-TROPICAL SEP 08 3.00 PM 47.3N 40.6W 1001 60 111 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ESPECIALLY THE AVALON PENINSULA. THIS HINGES ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM AND ITS POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE TRAPPED NORTH OF THE STORM. ANY RAINFALL IN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE WILL BE IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MODERATE SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH FABIAN WILL BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND PASSING SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO MARINE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF FABIAN IT IS EXPECTED THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS EYE STILL OBSCURED MAKING INDENTIFYING THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE CENTRE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER IT IS CLEAR THAT FABIAN IS VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA. THE CONVECTION WITH FABIAN REMAINS STRONG AND WIND STRENGTHS ARE MAINTAINED AT 105 KNOTS. THE EXPANSE OF GALES AND STORM FORCE WINDS IS INFERRED FROM QUICKSCAT DATA...WHICH GAVE GOOD COVERAGE OF FABIAN THIS MORNING AND SHOWED A GALE DIAMETER OF OVER 300 NM. B. PROGNOSTIC OUR TRACK IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ISSUE WITH NO CHANGE AT ALL IN THINKING. ALMOST IDENTICAL AGREEMENT WITH NHC TRACK. WE KEEP FABIAN TROPICAL A BIT LONGER THAN NHC BECAUSE OF FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS...BUT AGREE THAT STRONG ASYMMETRIES WILL BE WELL DEVELOPED BY MID DAY SUNDAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER A CLOSE WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND FABIAN.... WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AVALON ON SUNDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 05/18Z 210 150 120 130 115 100 60 80 90 80 40 50 06/06Z 205 150 120 120 105 100 55 75 80 70 35 45 06/18Z 190 165 120 110 110 100 50 60 70 65 30 35 07/06Z 170 195 120 100 130 105 35 35 65 60 25 20 07/18Z 160 225 120 100 135 125 25 15 55 60 10 5 08/06Z 160 255 120 100 120 150 15 5 40 60 0 0 08/18Z 160 285 120 100 90 180 5 0 0 0 0 0 CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL CONTINUES SHOWING VERY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE EAST SIDE OF FABIAN...ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. WW3 MODEL CONCURS ALTHOUGH TIMING IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. END BOWYER