WTCN31 CWHX 060000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 05 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ... FABIAN STEAMS NORTHWARD AFTER STRIKING BERMUDA .... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 N AND LONGITUDE 64.7 W... ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OR 90 KM NORTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 946 MB. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH FABIAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 05 9.00 PM 33.1N 64.7W 950 105 194 SEP 06 9.00 AM 35.5N 62.7W 951 100 185 SEP 06 9.00 PM 37.7N 59.8W 952 95 176 SEP 07 9.00 AM 40.3N 55.9W 966 85 157 SEP 07 9.00 PM 43.3N 50.5W 980 75 139 SEP 08 9.00 AM 46.6N 43.8W 975 65 120 POST-TROPICAL SEP 08 9.00 PM 49.2N 38.0W 965 60 111 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ESPECIALLY THE AVALON PENINSULA. THIS HINGES ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM AND ITS POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE TRAPPED NORTH OF THE STORM. ANY RAINFALL IN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE WILL BE IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR EMERGENCY MEASURES ORGANIZATION HAS ISSUED A PRESS RELEASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO FABIAN. THE PRESS RELEASE MAINTAINS A PRECAUTIONARY APPROACH CAUTIONING AGAINST POSSIBLE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO FABIAN. OF CONCERN ARE POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MODERATE SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH FABIAN WILL BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND PASSING SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO MARINE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF FABIAN IT IS EXPECTED THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS WHEN THE EYEWALL MOVED OVER BERMUDA THERE WERE ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 115 KNOTS. THERE WAS ALSO AN UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF 102-KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS. THE EYE REMAINS OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS BUT CONVECTION WITH FABIAN REMAINS STRONG AND WIND STRENGTHS ARE MAINTAINED AT 105 KNOTS. THE EXPANSE OF GALES AND STORM FORCE WINDS IS INFERRED FROM QUICKSCAT DATA...WHICH GAVE GOOD COVERAGE OF FABIAN THIS MORNING AND SHOWED A GALE DIAMETER OF OVER 300 NM. B. PROGNOSTIC OUR TRACK IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ISSUE WITH NO CHANGE AT ALL IN THINKING. ALMOST IDENTICAL AGREEMENT WITH NHC TRACK. WE KEEP FABIAN TROPICAL A BIT LONGER THAN NHC BECAUSE OF FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS...BUT AGREE THAT STRONG ASYMMETRIES WILL BE WELL DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER A CLOSE WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND FABIAN.... WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AVALON ON SUNDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 06/00Z 210 150 120 120 115 100 60 75 85 75 35 45 06/12Z 200 150 120 110 115 100 55 60 75 65 30 35 07/00Z 180 165 120 110 120 100 50 40 65 60 25 30 07/12Z 170 195 120 100 130 105 35 20 55 60 20 20 08/00Z 160 230 120 100 130 120 25 10 45 60 10 5 08/12Z 160 260 120 100 110 160 15 530 50 0 0 09/00Z 160 285 120 100 90 190 5 0 0 0 0 0 CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL CONTINUES SHOWING VERY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE EAST SIDE OF FABIAN...ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. WW3 MODEL CONCURS ALTHOUGH TIMING IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. END MARSHALL/FOGARTY