WTCN31 CWHX 061800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SATURDAY 06 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... FABIAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 N AND LONGITUDE 60.4 W... ABOUT 345 NAUTICAL MILES OR 645 KM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS... 176 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 961 MB. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH FABIAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 06 3.00 PM 37.0N 60.4W 961 95 176 SEP 07 3.00 AM 39.2N 57.4W 963 90 167 SEP 07 3.00 PM 41.7N 53.1W 972 80 148 SEP 08 3.00 AM 44.8N 47.7W 987 70 130 SEP 08 3.00 PM 49.3N 41.1W 989 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 09 3.00 AM 54.8N 35.1W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 09 3.00 PM 61.9N 31.4W 994 60 111 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AVALON PENINSULA ON SUNDAY HOWEVER WE BELIEVE THESE SHOWERS..IF THEY OCCUR..WILL NOT BE HEAVY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED THAT MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS AND ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. GALE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF THE GRAND BANKS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HURRICANE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE FABIAN REMAINS STRONG WITH A CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE. LATEST POSITION IS FROM SATELLITE. B. PROGNOSTIC A VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TO FIT CURRENT MOTION. DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS TRACK IS SLIGHT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND TRACK BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT MUCH WEAKENING FOR NEXT 12 HOURS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS FABIAN MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HEAVY RAINS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 06/18Z 140 180 160 115 110 130 120 85 85 95 90 55 07/06Z 145 195 170 105 120 145 130 75 85 100 90 0 07/18Z 160 195 190 110 130 170 150 75 100 115 110 0 08/06Z 150 190 170 85 120 145 125 0 95 100 85 0 08/18Z 180 185 170 95 125 165 130 0 0 0 0 0 09/06Z 175 180 160 150 145 165 115 0 0 0 0 0 09/18Z 165 170 150 165 165 145 0 85 0 0 0 0 CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL CONTINUES SHOWING VERY HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF FABIAN. END STEEVES