WTCN31 CWHX 151800
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT MONDAY
15 SEPTEMBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

 ... ISABEL IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWEST....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.3 N AND LONGITUDE 69.7 W... ABOUT 600 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1000
KM EAST SOUTHHEAST OF MIAMI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS... 222 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 946
MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

ISABEL IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWEST.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 15  3.00 PM  25.3N  69.7W   946  120  222
SEP 16  3.00 AM  26.4N  70.7W   946  115  213
SEP 16  3.00 PM  27.6N  71.6W   946  115  213
SEP 17  3.00 AM  29.0N  72.5W   948  115  213
SEP 17  3.00 PM  31.1N  73.6W   949  115  213
SEP 18  3.00 AM  33.3N  74.9W   950  115  213
SEP 18  3.00 PM  35.8N  76.2W   962  110  204

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. REMNANTS OF ISABEL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
GALE FORCE WINDS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY


5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
POSITION FIXED VIA SAT PIX WITH WELL DEFINED EYE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
ISABEL LOCATED IN AREA OF FAVOURABLE DYNAMICS AS UPPER RIDGE
BECOMES REESTABLISHED AS TROUGH DEPARTS..THUS PROVIDING
OUTFLOW CIRCULATION AND LITTLE SHEAR OVER NEXT 48 HOURS.
ISABEL MOVING THROUGH WARM WATERS WILL MAINTAIN THERMODYNAMICS.

THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH PAST 60 HOURS.  THE CURRENT PROGNOSIS HAS ISABEL
CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH BRINGING IT INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.ISABEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AS SHE
CROSSES APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE WE ARE TRYING TO
DO A LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FULL KNOWLEDGE OF THE FICKLE NATURE
OF HURRICANES. HOWEVER..ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF ISABEL. AS A
RESULT..OUR TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTRES TRACK.

END CAMPBELL/LAFORTUNE