WTCN31 CWHX 160000
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT MONDAY
15 SEPTEMBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

 ... ISABEL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ON COURSE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC
     STATES....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.0 N AND LONGITUDE 70.0 W... ABOUT 650 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1200 KM
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS... 219 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
946 MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS...13 KM/H.


2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 15  9.00 PM  26.0N  70.0W   950  110  204
SEP 16  9.00 AM  27.0N  71.2W   952  105  194
SEP 16  9.00 PM  28.3N  72.0W   952  105  194
SEP 17  9.00 AM  30.1N  73.0W   952  105  194
SEP 17  9.00 PM  32.2N  74.2W   953  105  194
SEP 18  9.00 AM  34.5N  75.6W   955  105  194
SEP 18  9.00 PM  37.0N  76.8W   982   70  129

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. REMNANTS OF ISABEL ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
POSITION FIXED VIA SAT PIX WITH WELL DEFINED EYE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
ISABEL LOCATED IN AREA OF FAVOURABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AS RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF..THUS ENHANCING OUTFLOW CIRCULATION
AND MINIMIZING SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISABEL MOVING
THROUGH WARM WATERS WILL MAINTAIN THERMODYNAMICS.

WITH RESPECT TO CANADIAN TERRITORY..THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION
IS THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PAST 60 HOURS.
THE CURRENT PROGNOSIS HAS ISABEL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 72
HOURS AS SHE GETS CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH AND
CROSSES APPLACHIAN MOUNTIANS..MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY.  OF COURSE WE ARE TRYING TO DO A LONG TERM FORECAST
WITH FULL KNOWLEDGE OF THE FICKLE NATURE OF HURRICANES.
HOWEVER..ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
2 DAYS WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF ISABEL. AS A RESULT..OUR TRACK
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE TRACK.

END CAMPBELL/FOGARTY