WTCN31 CWHX 160600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.00 AM EDT TUESDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8.00 AM EDT ... ISABEL SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS.... ... REMNANTS EXPECTED IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 2.00 AM EDT... HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 N AND LONGITUDE 70.5 W... ABOUT 630 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1165 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 950 MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS... 13 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND EDT MB KTS KMH SEP 16 2.00 AM 26.4N 70.5W 950 105 194 SEP 16 2.00 PM 27.7N 71.3W 948 105 194 SEP 17 2.00 AM 29.2N 72.2W 953 100 185 SEP 17 2.00 PM 30.8N 73.2W 953 100 185 SEP 18 2.00 AM 33.3N 74.8W 959 95 176 SEP 18 2.00 PM 35.7N 76.3W 960 95 176 SEP 19 2.00 AM 39.1N 77.8W 985 55 102 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. HOWEVER.. WE EXPECT THE REMAINS OF ISABEL TO IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER ONTARIO AND PARTS OF QUEBEC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE REMNANT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. HOWEVER..GALES FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY..AND IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY. MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SWELL OF 2 TO 3 METRES IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE EBBING TIDE. OTHER- WISE NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MARITIME WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SSMI SHOW EROSION OF THE EYWALL ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE AS OF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF ISABEL. THERE IS ALSO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF THIS ANTICYCLONE THAT IS IMPINGING ON THE HURRICANE OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE. B. PROGNOSTIC THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE TRICKY AS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH NEIGHBORING FEATURES SUCH AS THE ANTI- CYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BYPASSING TO THE NORTH TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS ISABEL MOVES NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONE AND OVER WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. BUT FOR NOW WE MAINTAIN A CAT-3/STRONG CAT-2 STORM ON A COURSE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE CANADIAN IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION OF ISABEL WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE TWO FEATURES MAY MERGE SOMETIME FRIDAY OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SOME MODELS SHOW THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHICH NORMALLY PROMOTES MOMENTUM TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO..IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF ISABEL COULD DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AFTER ITS POST-LANDFALL FILLING PERIOD. IT IS HOWEVER WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE IF THIS DEEPENING WILL OCCUR. IN FACT..THE GFS MODEL NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD THE STORM SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED. DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK AND THE HEAVIER RAINFALLS TO THE WEST. THIS CAN BE USED AS A ROUGH GUIDE IN THE FORECASTS OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK OVER LAKE ONTARIO. END..FOGARTY/PARKES