WTCN31 CWHX 161200 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.00 AM EDT TUESDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2.00 PM EDT ... ISABEL SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS.... ... REMNANTS EXPECTED IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 8.00 AM EDT... HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 N AND LONGITUDE 70.9 W... ABOUT 570 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1060 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS... 185 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 956 MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS...15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND EDT MB KTS KMH SEP 16 8.00 AM 27.0N 70.9W 956 100 185 SEP 16 8.00 PM 28.4N 71.8W 956 100 185 SEP 17 8.00 AM 30.0N 72.7W 954 100 185 SEP 17 8.00 PM 32.0N 74.0W 953 100 185 SEP 18 8.00 AM 34.6N 76.0W 954 100 185 SEP 18 8.00 PM 37.3N 77.8W 980 65 120 SEP 19 8.00 AM 40.8N 78.5W 985 35 65 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. HOWEVER.. WE EXPECT THE REMAINS OF ISABEL TO IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER ONTARIO AND PARTS OF QUEBEC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE REMNANT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. HOWEVER..GALES FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY..AND IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY. MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SWELL OF 2 TO 3 METRES IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE EBBING TIDE. OTHER- WISE NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVERMARITIME WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ISABEL STRUGGLING TO REGAIN ORGANIZATION IN THE CORE AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 956 MB AND SURFACE WINDS DOWN TO 100 KTS. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME DRY AIR INJECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM FROM AN ANTICYLONE TO THE WEST. ON THE OTHER HAND..VERY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM NEAR THE CENTRE SO IT MAY ONLY BE A METTER OF TIME BEFORE THE CORE REORGANIZES ITSELF. B. PROGNOSTIC THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE TRICKY AS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH NEIGHBORING FEATURES SUCH AS THE ANTI- CYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BYPASSING TO THE NORTH TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS ISABEL MOVES NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONE AND OVER WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. BUT FOR NOW WE MAINTAIN A CAT-3/STRONG CAT-2 STORM ON A COURSE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE CANADIAN IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION OF ISABEL WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE TWO FEATURES MAY MERGE SOMETIME FRIDAY OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SOME MODELS SHOW THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHICH NORMALLY PROMOTES MOMENTUM TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO..IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF ISABEL COULD DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AFTER ITS POST-LANDFALL FILLING PERIOD. IT IS HOWEVER WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE IF THIS DEEPENING WILL OCCUR. IN FACT..THE GFS MODEL NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD THE STORM SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED. DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK AND THE HEAVIER RAINFALLS TO THE WEST. THIS CAN BE USED AS A ROUGH GUIDE IN THE FORECASTS OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK OVER LAKE ONTARIO. END..FOGARTY/CAMPBELL