WTCN31 CWHX 161800
CORRECTED CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT
2.00 PM EST TUESDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8.00 PM EST

 ... ISABEL IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWEST....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

..2 PM POSITION WAS INCORRECT..CORRECT POSITION IS AS FOLLOWS...

AT 2.00 PM EST... HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.6 N AND LONGITUDE 71.3 W... ABOUT 520 NAUTICAL MILES OR 965 KM
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 958
MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

ISABEL IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWEST.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          EST                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 16  2.00 PM  27.6N  71.3W   958  90  167
SEP 17  2.00 AM  29.2N  72.2W   959  90  167
SEP 17  2.00 PM  30.7N  73.3W   959  90  167
SEP 18  2.00 AM  32.6N  74.7W   958  95  176
SEP 18  2.00 PM  35.0N  76.5W   956  95  176
SEP 19  2.00 AM  38.0N  78.0W   968  50  93
SEP 19  2.00 PM  41.0N  78.3W   964  45  83

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. HOWEVER..
WE EXPECT THE REMAINS OF ISABEL TO IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER ONTARIO
AND PARTS OF QUEBEC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE REMNANT SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
HOWEVER..GALES FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY..AND IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY.

MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SWELL
OF 2 TO 3 METRES IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE EBBING TIDE. OTHER-
WISE NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTEDOVER MARITIME WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EYE BUT RECENT IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOW IT BECOMING MORE
CLEARLY DEFINED.  HOWEVER WE FOLLOW AIRCRAFT RECONNAINCE REPORTS
FROM THIS MORNING INDICATING THAT THE EYE IS 25 NM WEST OF
THE SATELLITE POSITION. PRESSURE IS KEPT AT 958 MB AS ISABEL
MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS A CAT 2 HURRICANE.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF ISABEL IS FEEDING DRIER AIR INTO
ITS WESTERN FLANK AS NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY HENCE
THE ASYMMETRY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  NOT CONVINCED THAT
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS CONVECTION
REORGANIZES ITSELF AROUND THE CORE. WE KEEP ISABEL AS A CAT 2
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL...HOWEVER SOME STREGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE AS IT APPROACHES .

AT THIS TIME WE MAINTAIN THAT THE CANADIAN IMPACT WILL DEPEND
ON THE INTERACTION OF ISABEL WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT. THE TWO FEATURES MAY MERGE ON
FRIDAY OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SOME MODELS SHOW
THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHICH NORMALLY PROMOTES
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO..IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF ISABEL COULD DEEPEN SOMEWHAT
AFTER ITS POST-LANDFALL FILLING PERIOD.
IT IS HOWEVER WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE IF THIS DEEPENING
WILL OCCUR. IN FACT..THE GFS MODEL FROM LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED
THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL'S REMNANT LOW
SHOULD THE STORM SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED.

DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE
EAST OF THE LOW TRACK AND THE HEAVIER RAINFALLS TO THE WEST. THIS
CAN BE USED AS A ROUGH GUIDE IN THE FORECASTS OVER THE COMING DAYS
WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME MODEL CONSENSUS
IS FOR A TRACK OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

END CAMPBELL/LAFORTUNE/STEEVES