WTCN31 CWHX 180600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.00 AM EDT THURSDAY 18 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8.00 AM EDT ...ISABEL HEADING TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA..EXPECTED LANDFALL EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY... ...RAIN AND WIND FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISABEL WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 2.00 AM EDT... HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 N AND LONGITUDE 74.5 W... ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES OR 280 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 956 MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS... 26 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND EDT MB KTS KMH SEP 18 2.00 AM 32.9N 74.5W 956 90 167 SEP 18 2.00 PM 35.1N 76.6W 955 90 167 SEP 19 2.00 AM 38.0N 78.2W 976 55 102 SEP 19 2.00 PM 41.8N 78.5W 985 45 83 SEP 20 2.00 AM 46.2N 78.9W 985 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 2.00 PM 50.7N 79.8W 982 30 56 POST-TROPICAL SEP 21 2.00 AM 55.6N 77.6W 990 30 56 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE REMNANTS OF ISABEL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN EARLY ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SUDBURY AND SAULT STE MARIE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TO JAMES BAY BY EVENING. UPWARDS OF 50 MM IS EXPECTED ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING FROM LONDON TO SUDBURY BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM SUDBURY TO MOOSONEE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF ISABEL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALLS OF ONLY 5 TO 10 MM ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM TORONTO TO NORTH BAY TO JAMES BAY INCLUDING THE WESTERN HALF OF QUEBEC...HOWEVER THESE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS..40 TO 70 KM/H. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS...WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR REGIONS JUST WEST OF THE STORM TRACK. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY AND FOR GEORGIAN BAY AND POSSIBLY LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ALSO..MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRESIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SWELL OF 2 TO 3 METRES IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE ESPECIALLY WITH THE EBBING TIDE. NO WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER MARITIME WATERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS ISABEL IS ON TRACK..CONTINUING TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTRE NOW AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE INNER WIND FIELD AND POTENTIAL DEEPENING BEFORE LANDFALL. UP UNTIL SATELLITE ECLIPSE THERE STILL APPEARED TO BE SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CORE CIRCULATION BUT AN SSMI OVERPASS AT 2305 UTC LAST EVENING SHOWED AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE CENTRE WITH A LARGE RADIUS. THE STORM HAS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS..AND THE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM COURTESY OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER FLORIDA. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL QUITE HIGH..UP TO 110 KNOTS BUT A LESS THAN USUAL PERCENT OF THESE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. B. PROGNOSTIC THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT GIVEN THE SATELLITE SIGNALS..WE DO EXPECT SOME DEEPENING BEFORE LANDFALL. OUR ATTENTION IS FOCUSSED ON THE IMPACT OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE US MIDWEST. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE PRIOR TO THIS BULLETIN..THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS EXTENDING WELL INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PERIOD. THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW IS ADJUSTED WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK FOLLOWING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER UP TO JAMES BAY. THIS IS BASED ON THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE REMNANT ISABEL LOW. SOME MORE DETAILS ON THE TROUGH INTERACTION..I.E. PV INTERACTION.. WILL BECOME AVAILABLE BEFORE THE NEXT BULLETIN AT 12 UTC. END..FOGARTY