WTCN31 CWHX 181800
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.00 PM EDT THURSDAY
18 SEPTEMBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8.00 PM EDT

... ISABEL IS MAKING LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ...

...RAIN AND WIND FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISABEL WILL MOVE INTO
   SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 2.00 PM EDT... HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.1 N AND LONGITUDE 76.2 W... ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES OR 60 KM
WEST SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS... 157 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 966
MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS... 31 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

ISABEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INLAND. ISABEL IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          EDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 18  2.00 PM  35.1N  76.2W   966   85  157
SEP 19  2.00 AM  38.2N  77.8W   988   55  102
SEP 19  2.00 PM  41.7N  78.5W   985   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20  2.00 AM  47.3N  79.0W   983   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20  2.00 PM  53.6N  78.0W   980   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 21  2.00 AM  58.4N  74.9W   982   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 21  2.00 PM  62.3N  73.1W   982   35   65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE REMNANTS OF ISABEL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN
EARLY ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TO
SUDBURY BY AFTERNOON AND TO JAMES BAY BY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
50 MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING FROM LONDON TO SUDBURY BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM SUDBURY TO MOOSONEE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REMAINS OF ISABEL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO.

RAINFALLS OF 5 TO 10 MM ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE
REMNANTS OF ISABEL FOR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN HALF OF
QUEBEC. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS..40 TO
70 KM/H WITH HIGHER GUSTS LOCALLY. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN THE WAKE OF ISABEL.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN REGIONS
AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR LAKE ONTARIO AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE.

ALSO..MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL PRESIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SWELL OF 2 TO 3 METRES IS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EBBING TIDE. NO WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER MARITIME WATERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

ISABEL IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF OCRACOKE ISLAND
NORTH CAROLINA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD
AND MOVE INTO VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.

B. PROGNOSTIC

OUR ATTENTION IS FOCUSSED ON THE IMPACT OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS
THE REMNANT LOW MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE US MIDWEST. THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE PREFERED
MODEL AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ISABEL.
THE MODEL SHOWS THE LOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
NEAR TORONTO BY 00 UTC FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO..THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN FROM THE GFS IS PREFERED. IT SHOWS AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM
RAINFALL AS DESCRIBED ABOVE THAT FITS WELL WITH THE CONCEPTUAL
PATTERN OF RAINFALL IN AN ET STORM. IN ADDITION..THE GFS SHOWS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL OVER NW ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MERGING OF THESE FEATURES
WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN PARTS OFONTARIO AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AN ELONGATED ZONE OF HEAVY RAINFALLS EXTENDING INTO THE JAMES BAY
AREA.

PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS FROM FLORIDA STATE LAST NIGHT BASED ON THE GEM
REGIONAL MODEL SHOW A CLEAR CASE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BEGINNING JUST AFTER LANDFALL AND TERMINATING NEAR JAMES BAY.
MID-TRANSITION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE REMNANT LOW WILL
BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PERIOD. IT IS ALSO THE BASIS ON MAINTAINING
A DEEPER LOW THAN MOST MODELS SUGGEST.

END..FOGARTY/SZETO/LAFORTUNE