WTCN31 CWHX 190000
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.00 PM EDT THURSDAY
18 SEPTEMBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2.00 AM EDT

... ISABEL BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL STORM IN NEXT 24 HOURS...

...RAIN AND WIND FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISABEL WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC
FRIDAY MORNING...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 8.00 PM EDT... HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
36.9 N AND LONGITUDE 77.8 W... ABOUT 130 NAUTICAL MILES OR 240 KM
NORTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970
MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 18 KNOTS... 34 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

ISABEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOSING
HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT AND BECOMING POST TROPICAL ON FRIDAY.
ISABEL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          EDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 18  8.00 PM  36.9N  77.8W   970   70  130
SEP 19  8.00 AM  40.4N  78.8W   984   50   93
SEP 19  8.00 PM  45.1N  79.4W   988   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20  8.00 AM  51.3N  78.6W   986   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20  8.00 PM  57.5N  74.5W   984   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 21  8.00 AM  61.0N  73.0W   982   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 21  8.00 PM  62.5N  74.5W   982   35   65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE REMNANTS OF ISABEL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEATHER OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TO
JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING FROM LONDON TO SUDBURY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL FROM SUDBURY TO MOOSONEE FRIDAY NIGHT ASTHE REMAINS OF ISABEL
MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.

LESSER RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE
REMNANTS OF ISABEL FOR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN HALF OF
QUEBEC. HOWEVER THESE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST
WINDS..40 TO 70 KM/H WITH HIGHER GUSTS LOCALLY. THESE WINDS WILL
BEGIN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN THE WAKE
OF ISABEL.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS AND WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN
REGIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
ADDITIONAL GALE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY.

ALSO..MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL PRESIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SWELL OF 2 TO 3 METRES IS
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EBBING TIDE. NO WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER MARITIME WATERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
ISABEL MADE LANDFALL AT AROUND 1.00 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. AT ISSUE TIME ISABEL IS MAINTAINING
HURRICANE STATUS BASED ON RECENT DATA FROM RECON FLIGHT. THE EYE IS
STILL VISIBILE ON RADAR IMAGES.

B. PROGNOSTIC

OUR ATTENTION IS FOCUSSED ON THE IMPACT OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS
THE REMNANT LOW MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE US MIDWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE REMNANTS OF ISABEL WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
NEAR TORONTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SPEED IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN FROM THE GFS IS
PREFERED. IT SHOWS AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL AS DESCRIBED ABOVE
THAT FITS WELL WITH THE CONCEPTUAL PATTERN OF RAINFALL IN AN ET
STORM. IN ADDITION..THE GFS SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL OVER NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MERGING OF THESE FEATURES WILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF ONTARIO AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ELONGATED
ZONE OF HEAVY RAINFALLS EXTENDING INTO THE JAMES BAY AREA.

PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS FROM FLORIDA STATE THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
GEM REGIONAL MODEL AND THE GFS MODEL SHOW ISABEL UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON FRIDAY. THE REMNANT LOW WILL
BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL JET OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LATTER PART OF
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PERIOD. IT IS ALSO THE BASIS FOR
MAINTAINING A DEEPER LOW THAN MOST MODELS SUGGEST.

END..SZETO/PARKES