WTCN31 CWHX 191800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.00 PM EDT FRIDAY 19 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8.00 PM EDT ... ISABEL DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL STORM... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 2.00 PM EDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.5 N AND LONGITUDE 80.4 W... ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES OR 60 KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF TORONTO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB. ISABEL IS MOVING NORTH AT 37 KNOTS... 69 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH ISABEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND EDT MB KTS KMH SEP 19 2.00 PM 43.5N 80.4W 997 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 2.00 AM 50.8N 78.7W 996 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 20 2.00 PM 56.8N 76.6W 985 35 65 POST-TROPICAL SEP 21 2.00 AM 62.0N 75.4W 984 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 21 2.00 PM 65.7N 74.8W 988 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVIEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TOTALS REPORTS SO FAR INDICATE A MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 53.4 MM AT POINT PELEE. HEAVY RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS INTENSIFY AGAIN. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION WILL HELP TO LIMIT AMOUNTS..PROBABLY LESS THAN 40 MM... THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF A FEW DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES IN THE GREATER TORONTO AREA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MOST CURRENT GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ENDED ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE REMNANTS OF ISABEL AND THE LOW APPROACHING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO MERGE WESTERLY GALES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAYAND POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HEAVIEST CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...SATELLITE IMAGES NO LONGER INDICATE ANY MINUS 50 C TOPS. STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SPREAD 200 TO 300 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTRE...AS A CONSEQUENCE NHC HAS LOWERED THE STATUS TO EXTRA TROPICAL AND HAVE ISSUED THEIR FINAL MESSAGE ON THE STORM. SIGNS OF BAROCLINICITY ARE APPEARING WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND HINTS OF COLD FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. B. PROGNOSTIC. CENTRAL PRESSURE RISEN TO 997 MB OR POSSIBLY HIGHER... LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THAT VALUE THROUGH THE DAY THEN PRESSURES SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE FUTURE TRACK. INITIALLY CURRENT MOTION OF NEAR 30 KNOTS IS CONTINUED FOR NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEN SOME FURTHER ACCELERATION TO POSSIBLY 40 KNOTS AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROUGH. GFS AND GEM VORTICITY PATTERNS FIELD APPEARS TO FOLLOW THE SYSTEM QUITE WELL.THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AT 36 HOURS AS IT GETS NORTH OF 60 AND THE UPPER CENTRE COMES NEARER. C. PUBLIC WEATHER HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY BE ENDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. BUT MAINTINED FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO FOR THE AREA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WIND WARNINGS WILL ALSO BE ENDED THIS AFTERNOON. D. MARINE WEATHER THE STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE STORM IS MOVING WELL EAST OF IT. HENCE GALES SHOULD END VERY SHORTLY IN LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. GALES ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING. WESTERLY GALES MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE OVERNIGHT AS IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HUDSON BAY. END MCILDOON