WTCN31 CWHX 200600
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.00 AM EDT SATURDAY
20 SEPTEMBER 2003.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON POST-TROPICAL STORM ISABEL.

 ... POST-TROPICAL STORM ISABEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 2.00 AM EDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 52.5 N AND LONGITUDE 80.0 W... ABOUT 460 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 860 KM NORTH NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 993 MB.
ISABEL IS MOVING NORTH AT 38 KNOTS... 70 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          EDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 20  2.00 AM  52.5N  80.0W   993   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20  2.00 PM  60.0N  77.8W   988   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 21  2.00 AM  63.3N  78.5W   986   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
ALL PUBLIC WARNINGS ENDED. THE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ISABEL HAS MOVED OUT OF ONTARIO AND IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS QUEBEC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
THE WARNING CRITERIA.
SOME UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR: SARNIA 46.0 MM
EARLTON 46.0 MM AND TORONTO PEARSON 33.2 MM.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE REMNANTS
OF ISABEL IS STILL PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND LAKE HURON. WESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY OVER HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY AS THE COMBINED LOWS MOVE NORTH AND MERGE WITH YET
ANOTHER LOW ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS NORTHERN LOW IS
PACKING WINDS OF STORM FORCE WHICH ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.
SOME UNOFFICIAL MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WERE REPORTED BY BUOYS
IN LAKE ONTARIO: BUOY 45139 HAD A PEAK GUST OF 40 KNOTS (74 KM/H)
AND BUOY 45135 HAD A PEAK GUST OF 42 KNOTS (78 KM/H).

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
CENTRE OF REMNANTS OF ISABEL WAS POORLY DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
PRIOR TO ECLIPSE. SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURES AT 0300Z WOULD SUGGEST
THE CENTRE TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KAPUSKASING AND MOOSONEE. THE WIND
SHIFTED AT MOOSONEE FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 0400Z WITH A
PRESSURE OF 995.8MB. SO THE INITIAL POSITION FOR THIS BULLETIN
PLACES ISABEL JUST NORTH OF MOOSONEE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
993MB.

B. PROGNOSTIC
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS AVAILABLE SO FAR. THE REMNANTS OF
ISABEL ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO SHORTLY AFTER ISSUE TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT
THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT
AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

WITH POST-TROPICAL STORM ISABEL BECOMING A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...IF
IT HASN'T ALREADY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM.

END SZETO/LAFORTUNE