WTCN31 CWHX 260600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... JUAN IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BUT SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 N AND LONGITUDE 61.9 W... ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES OR 295 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 992 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 26 3.00 AM 31.1N 61.9W 992 55 102 SEP 26 3.00 PM 32.7N 62.4W 992 55 102 SEP 27 3.00 AM 34.5N 62.9W 991 60 111 SEP 27 3.00 PM 36.3N 63.2W 990 60 111 SEP 28 3.00 AM 38.8N 63.5W 989 60 111 SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.2N 64.0W 990 60 111 SEP 29 3.00 AM 44.0N 63.5W 992 60 111 SEP 29 3.00 PM 47.5N 61.5W 993 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 AM 51.0N 59.0W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS FOR REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IN OUTLOOK PERIOD..FOR SOUTHWESTERN WATERS CLOSE TO TRACK OF JUAN..WENT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK PATH AND STORM INTENSITY. MADE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS IN SYNOPSIS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS BOUY 41537 AS REPORTED BY NHC SHOWING PRESSURE 992MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTRE THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS YET TO RESUME. B. PROGNOSTIC JUAN IS SITUATED WITHIN WESTERN FLANK OFUPPER RIDGE THUS PROVIDING SOME OUTFLOW AS NOTED BY CIRRUS ON IR IMAGERY. JUANS MOTION INCREASINGLY SLOW AND MAY BE ALMOST CONSIDERED QUASISTATIONARY FOR NOW. AS MENTIONED EARLIER..JUAN HAS ITS ORIGINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH 500MB LOW. NOAA/NESDIS SST ANALYSIS SHOWS JUAN TO BE LOCATED IN LARGE POOL OF 28C WATER THUS PROVIDING GOOD THERMODYNAMICS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD REDEVELOP. JUAN WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNDER DIRECTION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE UPPER RIDGE. AS UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO DIG AND INCH EASTWARD..JUAN WILL BE STEERED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY 60 TO 72 HOUR..JUAN COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW MOVING UP SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AM ABLE TO FOLLOW OR INFER JUAN ON GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL. THIS FOLLOWS NHC TRACK QUITE WELL..WE FOLLOW NHC SOLUTION WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 26/06Z 120 100 50 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 26/18Z 180 120 50 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 27/06Z 180 120 50 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 27/18Z 180 120 50 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 28/06Z 180 120 50 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 28/18Z 180 120 50 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 29/06Z 180 120 50 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 29/18Z 180 120 50 120 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 200 140 60 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL