WTCN31 CWHX 261200 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 26 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ... JUAN IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 N AND LONGITUDE 61.8 W... ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES OR 275 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 990 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 26 9.00 AM 31.8N 61.8W 990 55 102 SEP 26 9.00 PM 33.8N 62.4W 989 55 102 SEP 27 9.00 AM 35.6N 62.7W 987 60 111 SEP 27 9.00 PM 37.7N 63.4W 986 65 120 SEP 28 9.00 AM 40.8N 63.7W 987 65 120 SEP 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 63.4W 988 60 111 SEP 29 9.00 AM 46.6N 62.2W 989 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 9.00 PM 49.2N 60.8W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 9.00 AM 52.7N 58.0W 991 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS FOR REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IN OUTLOOK PERIOD..FOR SOUTHWESTERN WATERS CLOSE TO TRACK OF JUAN..WENT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK PATH AND STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER JUAN MAY STILL BE HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR MARINE AREAS. POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTER CIRCULATION CENTRE SURROUNDED BY SPIRAL BANDS. BEFORE ECLIPSE..ONE COULD MAKE OUT AN EYE LIKE FEATURE THAT BECAME OBSCURED BY CONVECTION AFTER THE ECLIPSE. WENT WITH INCREASED INTENSITY AS PER NHC MESSAGE. B. PROGNOSTIC LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. OPTED FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AS JUAN TRACKS ACROSS WARM POOL OF WATER..THEN WEAKENED JUAN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS COOLER WATER NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N. NHC WENT WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER MOTION BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND WE ADJUSTED OUR TRACK ACCORDINGLY. FROM CLIMATOLOGY MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT IMPACT ON THE MARITIMES PASS WEST OF BERMUDA. THE ONES THAT PASS EAST OF BERMUDA TEND TO VEER OFF TO THE EAST WHICH MAKES ME WONDER IF OUR TRACK IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IT IS A LITTLE EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE RIGHT. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 26/12Z 180 120 70 90 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 27/00Z 180 120 70 90 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 27/12Z 180 120 70 90 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 28/00Z 180 120 70 90 20 30 0 30 0 10 0 0 28/12Z 180 120 70 90 20 30 0 30 0 10 0 0 29/00Z 180 120 70 90 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 29/12Z 180 120 70 90 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 190 130 80 100 20 20 0 20 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 200 140 90 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL/MCILDOON