WTCN31 CWHX 271800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ...HURRICANE JUAN HEADING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA..EXPECTED LANDFALL OVER OR JUST WEST OF HALIFAX SUNDAY EVENING... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 N AND LONGITUDE 63.4 W... ABOUT 255 NAUTICAL MILES OR 475 KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 978 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH JUAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 27 3.00 PM 35.6N 63.4W 978 75 139 SEP 28 3.00 AM 38.8N 63.6W 972 80 148 SEP 28 3.00 PM 42.5N 64.1W 983 70 130 SEP 29 3.00 AM 48.2N 63.2W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 3.00 PM 55.5N 61.4W 998 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 AM 65.1N 63.7W 988 45 83 ABSORBED BY OTHER LOW SEP 30 3.00 PM 73.7N 66.3W 981 55 102 ABSORBED BY OTHER LOW 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 80 MM ARE FORECAST FOR MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN CAPE BRETON. PEI IS ALSO UNDER A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE BEING POSTED FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT WESTERNMOST NOVA SCOTIA. A WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PEI..MAGDELAN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 140 KM/H WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 90 KM/H IN THE HALIFAX AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 90 AND 120 KM/H IN THE WARNING AREAS. IN ADDITION.. GUSTS TO 150 KM/H ASSOCIATED WITH SUETE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TOPPLING OF SOME TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO LOCAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SURGE AND HIGH WAVES. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF JUAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR ADJACENT WATERS. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF HALIFAX COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SURGE MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 5 FEET OR 1.5 METRES. THIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SURGE INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING AND EROSION. MODERATE TO HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE STORM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANZIED WITH SOLID AND COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. THE EYE IS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE LOOPS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS VERY LIKELY TODAY AS WATERS ARE AT LEAST 26C. JUAN REMAINS A TIGHT SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD DIAMETER OF ONLY 200 NM. B. PROGNOSTIC THE MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IS THAT THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE WEST. THIS CHANGE BRINGS HURRICANE JUAN OVER OR JUST WEST OF HALIFAX AROUND 6/7 PM SUNDAY NIGHT. JUAN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WARM WATER IN EXCESS OF 26C AND WILL MOVE OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AT 40N SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE GULF STREAM AND THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST ARE RUNNING ABOVE 18C..THE WEAKENING TREND MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT LEADING TO THE FORECAST OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE SIMILAR TO HORTENSE IN 1996. JUAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND TRANSFORM TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE EARLY MONDAY. AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF AND TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THIS RAIN MAY BEGIN AS SOON AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE FLOW TO THE WEST AND LARGE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEND JUAN ALMOST DUE NORTH CROSSING CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY MARK AND END TO THE INTENSIFICATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR MAY NOT BE HIGH SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW THE HURRICANE WILL RESPOND TO THE FLOW. THE REMAINS OF JUAN WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LABRADOR ON MONDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 27/18Z 260 260 90 90 100 100 50 50 20 20 20 20 28/06Z 260 260 150 150 120 120 60 60 20 30 30 20 28/18Z 300 260 150 150 100 100 40 40 20 10 10 10 29/06Z 255 225 120 120 30 30 20 20 0 0 0 0 29/18Z 380 320 150 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 300 250 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 300 250 120 120 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 END..FOGARTY/KIRKWOOD