WTCN31 CWHX 281200 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...HURRICANE JUAN HEADING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...EXPECTED LANDFALL STILL AS A HURRICANE...NEAR HALIFAX OR JUST WEST OF HALIFAX LATER THIS EVENING...... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 N AND LONGITUDE 64.3 W... ABOUT 350 NAUTICAL MILES OR 650 KM SOUTH OF HALIFAX. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970 MB. JUAN IS MOVING APPROXIMATELY NORTH AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH JUAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY. JUAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 28 9.00 AM 38.7N 64.3W 970 90 167 SEP 28 9.00 PM 44.1N 64.1W 982 70 130 SEP 29 9.00 AM 50.6N 62.7W 992 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 9.00 PM 58.2N 61.6W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 9.00 AM 63.8N 62.7W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 80 MM ARE FORECAST FOR MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA. PEI IS ALSO UNDER A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR NEW BRUNSWICK EXCEPT EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS. WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PEI THE MAGDELAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOWER THERE. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS OF UP TO 150 KM/H WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE STORM LANDFALL. THE WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED OVER CAPE BRETON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LES SUETES OVER THE WESTERN CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND APART FROM WRECKHOUSE WINDS IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TOPPLING OF SOME TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE NEAR PHASING OF JUAN WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HORTENSE IN SEPTEMBER 1996 WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1.0+ METRE STORM SURGE AND WE SHOULD EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR WITH JUAN. PRESENTLY WE ARE EXPERIENCING NEAR PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING IN HALIFAX AT 22:45 PM. ATHOUGH THIS IS THE LOWER HIGH TIDE OF THE DAY... IT IS STILL ONLY 20 CM BELOW HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE STORM SURGE IS 1.0+ METRES TO THE WEST OF JUAN AND 1.5+ METRES TO THE EAST OF ITS PROJECTED LANDFALL. THE NEAR CONCIDENCE OF THE STORM SURGE WITH THIS HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE DOWNTOWN WATERFRONT OF HALIFAX. WE SHALL KNOW BETTER THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS LATER TODAY...NEARER THE ARRIVAL TIME. THIS PROBLEM WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE ARRIVAL OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES IN THE COASTAL ZONE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE FROM THE MEDWAY HARBOUR TO ECUM SECUM SO A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE SECTIONS OF THE COASTLINE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF JUAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR ADJACENT WATERS. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. VERY LARGE WAVES AND POTENTIAL DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN COASTAL SECTIONS EAST OF THE STORM TRACK PARTICULARLY FROM THE SAMBRO PENINSULA TO SHEET HARBOUR LEADING TO SOME COASTAL DAMAGE AND EROSION. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANZIED WITH A LARGE EYE AND CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE AT 28/09Z REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. JUAN REMAINS A TIGHT SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD DIAMETER HAS INCREASED ON RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES TO ABOUT 230 NM. ON THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THE CLOSEST SHIP WAS 180 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. QUICKSCAT LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SWATH OF 60 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GALES OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 220 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HURRICANE HAS RECENTLY TURNED MORE NORTHWARD. B. PROGNOSTIC THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE AT THIS TIME FROM THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN. JUAN IS PRESENTLY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. RECENTLY JUAN HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE. FURTHER ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS IT COMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MAJOR CONTOUR TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL CLOSE TO HALIFAX LATE THIS EVENING AND WE ARE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS TRACK PREVIOUS TRACK. WE FEEL THAT THE REGIONAL MODELS SUCH AS ETA, GEM AND ALSO THE CANADIAN GLOBAL WHICH CARRY A CENTRE INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY OF FUNDY ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST...AND WITH THE RECENT TURN TO THE NORTH THIS SOLUTION NOW SEEMS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. GEM HOWEVER DOES HAVE A TRACK SOLUTION SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OURS...IF YOU FOLLOW THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE TO THE 500 MB VORT MAX. WE CONCUR THEREFORE WITH THE LASTEST NHC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE STORM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HALIFAX OR ST MARGARETS BAY LATE THIS EVENING. ...STILL A MARGINAL HURRICANE AT THAT TIME WITH MAX WINDS OF ABOUT 65 KNOTS. JUAN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WARM WATER NEAR 26C BUT WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AT 40N FROM LATE THIS MORNING ONWARDS. RELATIVELY WARM WATERS LIE BETWEEN THE GULF STREAM AND THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST...RUNNING ABOVE 18C. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN BUT THE WEAKENING TREND MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT LEADING TO THE FORECAST OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE SIMILAR TO HORTENSE IN 1996 AND BLANCHE IN 1975. JUAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE EARLY MONDAY. C. MARINE WEATHER NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 28/12Z 220 150 60 120 100 75 50 60 30 30 30 30 29/00Z 210 150 60 120 100 75 50 60 30 30 30 30 29/12Z 250 250 100 150 120 90 30 60 00 00 00 00 30/00Z 250 200 80 120 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 30/12Z 300 300 120 150 120 120 00 00 00 00 00 00 END PARKES/CAMPBELL