WTCN31 CWHX 281800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... HURRICANE JUAN BEARING DOWN ONTO NOVA SCOTIA... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 N AND LONGITUDE 64.1 W... ABOUT 190 NAUTICAL MILES OR 355 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS... 148 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 976 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH JUAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 28 3.00 PM 40.5N 64.1W 976 80 148 SEP 29 3.00 AM 48.0N 63.0W 997 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 3.00 PM 56.0N 62.0W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 AM 62.5N 58.0W 989 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 80 MM ARE FORECAST FOR MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR NEW BRUNSWICK EXCEPT EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PEI.. THE MAGDELAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK...WHERE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 150 KM/H WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE STORM LANDFALL. LES SUETES GUSTING TO 150 KM/H ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND APART FROM WRECKHOUSE WINDS IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. SEE PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULTIN THE TOPPLING OF SOME TREES AND THE DOWNING OF LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE NEAR PHASING OF JUAN WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HORTENSE IN SEPTEMBER 1996 WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1.0+ METRE STORM SURGE AND WE SHOULD EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR WITH JUAN. PRESENTLY WE ARE EXPERIENCING NEAR PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING IN HALIFAX AT 22:45 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE LOWER HIGH TIDE OF THE DAY... IT IS STILL ONLY 20 CM BELOW HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE STORM SURGE IS 1.0+ METRES TO THE WEST OF JUAN AND 1.5+ METRES TO THE EAST OF ITS PROJECTED LANDFALL. THE NEAR COINCIDENCE OF THE STORM SURGE WITH THIS HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE DOWNTOWN WATERFRONT OF HALIFAX. THIS PROBLEM WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE ARRIVAL OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES IN THE COASTAL ZONE OF THE EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO ECUM SECUM SO A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE SECTIONS OF THE COASTLINE. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF JUAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR ADJACENT WATERS. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. VERY LARGE WAVES AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN COASTAL SECTIONS EAST OF THE STORM TRACK PARTICULARLY FROM THE SAMBRO PENINSULA TO SHEET HARBOUR LEADING TO SOME COASTAL DAMAGE AND EROSION. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE EYE IS BECOMING CLEARER ON SAT IMAGERY...SHOWING A NORTHWARD TRACK AT 20 KNOTS. B. PROGNOSTIC CLOUD TOPS DUE TO CONVECTION ARE NOW WARMING.. INDICATING THAT JUAN IS ENTERING THE COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. THEREFORE WE WEAKEN WINDS AND RAISE CENTRAL PRESSURE. JUAN IS UNDER AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TOTHE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. JUAN IS BEING SQUEEZED AGAINST THE ENTRENCHED UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS CURRENTLY AGREES WITH CURRENT MOTION OF JUAN. AS JUAN MOVES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA..GFS SHOWS ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE WE INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A 00Z POSITION NEAR HALIFAX..MUCH LIKE OUR OLD FORECAST POSITION. RELATIVELY WARM WATER ALONG THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DEGRADE THE STABILITY PROCESSES THAT NORMALLY MITIGATE THE WINDS WITH LANDFALLING HURRICANES SO WE EXPECT JUAN TO HIT THE COAST WITH PLENTY OF FURY. JUAN GOES THROUGH EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL AND WE ACCELERATE IT THOUGH GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND INTO LABRADOR BEFORE IT GETS INCORPORATED BY EXTRATROPICAL PROCESSES. HOWEVER WE NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS POTENTIAL FIELDS FROM PENN STATE FOR THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOW JUAN RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WELL AFTER LANDFALL HENCE IT MAY PACK A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH AS IT MOVES THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. WE CHOSE TO KEEP A SPEED WHICH IS FASTER THAN PUT OUT BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE BUT ON THE SAME TRACK. THIS GOES AGAINST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS MODELS WHICH ALSO SUGGEST A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED..HOWEVER OUR EXPERIENCE WOULD DICTATE THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS ALWAYS SEEM TO MOVE FASTER WHEN MOVING THROUGH CANADIAN TERRITORY THAN OUR BEST FORECASTS WOULD OTHERWISE INDICATE. C. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 28/18Z 250 150 90 150 100 75 50 60 30 30 30 30 29/06Z 250 200 100 135 110 90 40 60 0 0 0 0 29/18Z 275 225 90 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 300 300 100 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL