WTCN31 CWHX 031800
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT FRIDAY
03 OCTOBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 N
AND LONGITUDE 49.0 W... ABOUT 825 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1525 KM EAST
OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS...
176 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 966 MB. KATE IS MOVING WEST
AT 9 KNOTS... 17 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

KATE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 03  3.00 PM  29.6N  49.0W   966   95  176
OCT 04  3.00 AM  29.8N  51.1W   961  100  185
OCT 04  3.00 PM  30.3N  53.2W   961  100  185
OCT 05  3.00 AM  31.1N  54.8W   961  100  185
OCT 05  3.00 PM  33.4N  56.1W   966   95  176
OCT 06  3.00 AM  35.6N  56.3W   959   90  167
OCT 06  3.00 PM  40.0N  55.0W   966   85  157
OCT 07  3.00 AM  44.3N  52.6W   978   75  139
OCT 07  3.00 PM  50.5N  49.4W   994   60  111
OCT 08  3.00 AM  55.3N  46.0W  1000   50   93

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
THE FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY TO THREATEN THAT PROVINCE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. MORE DETAILS ON THE INLAND EFFECTS OF KATE WILL NOT BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS ITS EXPECTED RECURVATURE TOWARDS
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD
MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN WATERS MONDAY AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES WEATHER
CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
FOLLOWING NHC GUIDANCE...STRENGTHENED TO 95 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE VORTICITY PATTERN IN GFS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWER
TRACK THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK REFLECTS THIS
IDEA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GLOBAL SHOWS A SIMILAR ROUTE BUT FASTER
FORWARD SPEED BUT IT LOOKS AS IF IT ACCELERATES THE VORT MAX A LITTLE
TOO SOON. STRANGELY THE VORTICITY PATTERN ON THE ETA MODEL ALSO
INDICATES A FORWARD SPEED WHICH IS EVEN FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL.
WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE QUITE CLOSELY ALTHOUGH ALLOWANCE
FOR THE FASTER SPEED INDICATED IN THE GLOBAL AND ETA MUST BE BORNE
IN MIND AS IT WOULD INIDCATE KATE IMPACTING ON NEWFOUNDLAND
MARINE AREAS AS SOON AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM A LITTLE STRONGER...AT HURRICANE STRENGTH... AS IT PASSES
NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST SEEMS CERTAIN
TO KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND THE INCREASING FLOW
UNDER WHICH THE STORM WILL MOVE SHOULD INITIATE TRANSITION AS IT
APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER ATLANTIC
CANADA TROPICAL CYCLONES IN RECENT YEARS... A SIGNIFICANT TRANSLATION
COMPONENT EAST OF TRACK... AND A WARY PUBLIC FOLLOWING HURRICANE JUAN
DICTATE THAT THIS IS THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION. IT SHOULD BE
KEPT IN MIND THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TO PREDICT... ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT MAY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION
TO EXTRATROPICAL... AND WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE CONSULTATION WITH THE
NHC TO REMAIN AS CONSISTENT AS POSSIBLE.

END MCILDOON