WTCN31 CWHX 040600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SATURDAY 04 OCTOBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 N AND LONGITUDE 51.4 W... ABOUT 695 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1285 KM EAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS... 185 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 961 MB. KATE IS MOVING WEST AT 9 KNOTS... 17 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH KATE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 04 3.00 AM 30.1N 51.4W 961 100 185 OCT 04 3.00 PM 30.4N 53.5W 956 105 194 OCT 05 3.00 AM 31.3N 55.1W 961 100 185 OCT 05 3.00 PM 33.0N 56.2W 961 100 185 OCT 06 3.00 AM 35.6N 56.8W 960 95 176 OCT 06 3.00 PM 39.9N 56.0W 966 85 157 OCT 07 3.00 AM 45.3N 53.3W 980 75 139 OCT 07 3.00 PM 50.6N 48.8W 991 65 120 POST-TROPICAL OCT 08 3.00 AM 54.5N 45.5W 997 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 08 3.00 PM 57.3N 41.4W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL OCT 09 3.00 AM 59.9N 36.9W 1004 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE... THE FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY TO THREATEN THAT PROVINCE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 80 MM ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM. MORE DETAILS ON THE INLAND EFFECTS OF KATE WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS ITS EXPECTED RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE LONGER RANGE... KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN WATERS MONDAY AND WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES WEATHER CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS FOLLOWING NHC GUIDANCE...CONTINUES AT CATEGORY 3 AT 100 KNOTS. B. PROGNOSTIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON FORECAST TRACK...TIMING WHEN IT TURNS NORTH AND ACCELERATES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC UNTIL IT OCCURS. LATEST COLLECTIVE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A TRACK NUDGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD FROM THE AVALON PENINSULA. BASICALLY WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW NHC CLOSELY. ETA MODEL AT 00Z IS MOVING THE VORT MAX MORE EASTWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. 00Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z RUN. THIS GIVES LESS CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA OF THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE AVALON PENINSULA AND HINTS THAT OUR TRACK MAY BE TOO FAR WEST. REGARDLESS THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE STORM INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING IT CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA ON TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAVE KEPT THE STORM A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST...AT HURRICANE STRENGTH... AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST SEEMS CERTAIN TO KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND THE INCREASING FLOW UNDER WHICH THE STORM WILL MOVE SHOULD INITIATE TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER ATLANTIC CANADA TROPICAL CYCLONES IN RECENT YEARS... AND A WARY PUBLIC FOLLOWING HURRICANE JUAN DICTATE THAT THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT... ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT MAY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL... AND WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE CONSULTATION WITH THE NHC TO REMAIN AS CONSISTENT AS POSSIBLE. END MARSHALL