WTCN31 CWHX 041200
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY
04 OCTOBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

 ... KATE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 52.8 W... ABOUT 620 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1150 KM EAST
OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS...
185 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 962 MB. KATE IS MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS... 20 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

KATE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 04  9.00 AM  30.3N  52.8W   962  100  185
OCT 04  9.00 PM  31.2N  55.1W   960  105  194
OCT 05  9.00 AM  32.7N  56.7W   961  100  185
OCT 05  9.00 PM  34.7N  57.4W   964   90  167
OCT 06  9.00 AM  38.3N  57.0W   966   80  148
OCT 06  9.00 PM  42.7N  55.0W   967   75  139
OCT 07  9.00 AM  48.0N  51.0W   972   70  130
OCT 07  9.00 PM  52.5N  47.2W   984   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08  9.00 AM  55.9N  43.5W   994   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08  9.00 PM  58.6N  39.1W  1000   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 09  9.00 AM  61.2N  34.6W  1004   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE
FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY TO THREATEN THAT PROVINCE WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 80 MM ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF
THE STORM. MORE DETAILS ON THE INLAND EFFECTS OF KATE WILL NOT BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS ITS EXPECTED RECURVATURE TOWARDS
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD
MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN WATERS MONDAY HENCE WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS
WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
MARITIMES WEATHER CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
EYE IS WELL DEFINED WITH GOOD CONCENTRIC BANDS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON FORECAST TRACK...TIMING WHEN IT
TURNS NORTH AND ACCELERATES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC UNTIL IT OCCURS.
SATELLITE LOOPS AFTER THE ECLIPSE HINT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
TURN TO THE NORTH.  BASICALLY WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW NHC CLOSELY.

ETA MODEL AT 00Z IS MOVING THE VORT MAX MORE EASTWARD THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. 00Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z RUN. ETA WANTS TO
STEER KATE FURTHER EAST THAN GFS AND IS FASTER THAN GFS.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A TRACK NUDGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EASTWARD FROM THE AVALON PENINSULA. THIS GIVES LESS CONFIDENCE
TO THE IDEA OF THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE AVALON PENINSULA AND
HINTS THAT OUR TRACK MAY BE TOO FAR WEST. REGARDLESS... THIS
TRACK WOULD BRING THE STORM INTO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS POSSIBLY
AS SOON AS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND BRING IT CLOSE TO THE AVALON
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST...AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH...AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST SEEMS
CERTAIN TO KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
INCREASING FLOW UNDER WHICH THE STORM WILL MOVE SHOULD INITIATE
TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION
OF STRONGER ATLANTIC CANADA TROPICAL CYCLONES IN RECENT YEARS...
AND A WARY PUBLIC FOLLOWING HURRICANE JUAN DICTATE THAT THE MOST
PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGES
ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT... ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS
THAT MAY BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL... AND WE
WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE CONSULTATION WITH THE NHC TO REMAIN AS
CONSISTENT AS POSSIBLE.

END MARSHALL/CAMPBELL