WTCN31 CWHX 050000
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SATURDAY
04 OCTOBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

 ... KATE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 54.8 W... ABOUT 520 NAUTICAL MILES OR 965 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS... 204 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 952
MB. KATE IS MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS... 19 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 04  9.00 PM  30.3N  54.8W   952  110  204
OCT 05  9.00 AM  31.8N  56.4W   960  105  194
OCT 05  9.00 PM  33.9N  57.2W   963   95  176
OCT 06  9.00 AM  37.5N  56.9W   966   85  157
OCT 06  9.00 PM  42.4N  54.8W   970   70  130
OCT 07  9.00 AM  49.0N  48.6W   984   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07  9.00 PM  56.2N  36.0W  1002   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08  9.00 AM  60.2N  19.5W  1004   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE
FORECAST TRACK OF KATE BRINGS THE STORM CENTRE JUST OFF THE
AVALON PENINSULA THEREFORE RAIN IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN. AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 80 MM ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IN THE COMING DAYS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LONGER RANGE... KATE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS THE GRAND
BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY EVENING HENCE WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THESE BULLETINS AS WELL AS
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES
WEATHER CENTRES IN THE COMING DAYS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
EYE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KATE IS STILL IN ZONE OF LITTLE SHEAR ACCORDING TO CIMMS UPPER
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS PLUS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT. WEAK COLD
FRONT AS SEEN BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATE
SHOULD CAUSE KATE TO BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD CURVATURE TONIGHT.
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION CHARTS
SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES INCREASING SHEAR AND AS COLD
FRONT BECOMES INCORPORATED BY KATE SUNDAY EVENING.
UPPER WINDS OVER KATE CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY BRINGING IT
OVER THE COLDER WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THUS WEAKENING KATE CONSIDERABLY TO A CAT 1 HURRICANE.
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTRE IN MIAMI TRACK FAIRLY CLOSELY IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH SOME DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST CENTRES OCCURRING AS
KATE RACES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

END CAMPBELL/SZETO