WTCN31 CWHX 051800
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT SUNDAY
05 OCTOBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT

 ... KATE IS NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 PM NDT... HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 56.3 W... ABOUT 410 NAUTICAL MILES OR 760 KM EAST
OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS...
157 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 976 MB. KATE IS MOVING NORTH
AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

KATE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 05  3.30 PM  31.3N  56.3W   976   85  157
OCT 06  3.30 AM  34.1N  56.8W   972   80  148
OCT 06  3.30 PM  37.9N  56.0W   978   75  139
OCT 07  3.30 AM  42.9N  53.0W   983   70  130
OCT 07  3.30 PM  48.3N  47.6W   991   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08  3.30 AM  53.4N  38.7W   997   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO SOUTH OF BERMUDA WILL GIVE RAIN TO NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY
AND MONDAY. THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE HURRICANE
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALONPENINSULA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH KATE
ARE FORECAST TO BE UPWARDS OF 80 MM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH
AMOUNTS FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
KATE. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS
THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES OF AT LEAST 10 METRES ARE TO BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
TRACK OF KATE. MARINE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY BOTH THE
NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES WEATHER CENTRES AND MANY OF THESE WILL
BE UPGRADED OR EXTENDED TO OTHER AREAS. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN
BULLETINS BEING RELEASED BY THOSE WEATHER CENTRES AROUND THE SAME
TIME AS THIS BULLETIN.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
KATE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY...6 TO 7 KTS.
POSITION EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1645Z IMAGES. STRENGTH FOLLOWS NHC
GUIDANCE WHICH IS THE SAME TREND IN MOST MODELS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
NO CHANGE FROM EARLIER REASONING... CONTINUE WITH TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS KATE COMES UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH. CONSENSUS OF
MOST MODELS SEEN THIS MORNING KEEP KATE WELL SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. OUR TRACK MATCHES NHC SPEED BUT THE PATH OF LEAST
REGRET IS A MIX OF NHC AND THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS TRACK.

FOLLOWING NHC GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
MAJORITY OF MODELS...KEEPING KATE AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE AS ITS
NEAREST POINT TO NEWFOUNDLAND.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
GFS COTNINUES PUTTING NEAR 5 INCHES OVER AVALON FOR THE 60-HR
CUMULATIVE QPF.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
05/18Z  185 150 100 120    65  65  50  60    30  30  10  20
06/06Z  195 155 100 120    80  80  35  60    25  25   5  15
06/18Z  200 170 100 120    90  90  25  55    20  15   0  10
07/06Z  205 180 100 120    80  90  20  40     5   5   0   5
07/18Z  210 180 100 120    65  95  25  30     0   0   0   0
08/06Z  210 180 100 120    55 105  45  35     0   0   0   0

FORECAST RADII BASED ON CHC WIND MODEL OUTPUT.

END BOWYER