WTCN31 CWHX 060000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM NDT SUNDAY 05 OCTOBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT ... KATE EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 KM SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY MORNING .... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 PM NDT... HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 N AND LONGITUDE 56.7 W... ABOUT 405 NAUTICAL MILES OR 745 KM EAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS... 148 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980 MB. KATE IS MOVING NORTH AT 9 KNOTS... 17 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH KATE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EARLY MONDAY AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 05 9.30 PM 32.6N 56.7W 980 80 148 OCT 06 9.30 AM 35.9N 56.5W 978 75 139 OCT 06 9.30 PM 40.2N 54.4W 983 70 130 OCT 07 9.30 AM 45.5N 50.1W 987 65 120 POST-TROPICAL OCT 07 9.30 PM 50.6N 43.2W 997 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 08 9.30 AM 55.7N 34.1W 1000 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS ALREADY GIVING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TO NEWFOUNDLAND... AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY. THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE HURRICANE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH KATE ARE FORECAST TO BE UPWARDS OF 80 MM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF KATE. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. OF COURSE ALL THIS DEPENDS ON THE PROXIMITY OF KATE TO THE PROVINCE AS IT PASSES. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY KATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES OF AT LEAST 10 METRES ARE TO BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE TRACK OF KATE. MARINE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY BOTH THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES WEATHER CENTRES AND MANY OF THESE WILL BE UPGRADED OR EXTENDED TO OTHER AREAS. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN BULLETINS BEING RELEASED BY THOSE WEATHER CENTRES. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS POSITION BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INTENSITY TAKEN FROM NHC GUIDANCE. B. PROGNOSTIC TRACK VERY SIMILAR TO 3PM ISSUE... BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER FROM THE NEWFOUNDLAND COAST AS PER THE NHC AND MAJORITY OF THE LATEST MODELS. IF ANYTHING WE MAY BE TOO FAR WEST... ESPECIALLY WITH LATEST MOTION INDICATING THAT IT MAY BE ALREADY HEADING SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH. MOST MODELS SHOW CONSISTENT TREND TO ET ON FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AS KATE PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER GFS CONTINUES PUTTING NEAR 5 INCHES OVER AVALON FOR THE 60-HR CUMULATIVE QPF. 15 MM IN 1 HR AT BURGEO NFLD AT 21Z SHOWS THE TYPE OF INTENSITY THAT MAY LEAD TO PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 06/00Z 180 150 120 120 70 70 40 60 30 30 30 30 06/12Z 195 160 100 120 85 85 30 55 20 20 0 10 07/00Z 200 175 100 120 85 90 20 45 10 10 0 5 07/12Z 205 180 100 120 70 90 20 35 0 10 0 0 08/00Z 210 180 100 120 60 100 35 30 0 0 0 0 08/12Z 210 180 100 120 50 110 55 40 0 0 0 0 FORECAST RADII BASED ON CHC WIND MODEL OUTPUT. END BOWYER