WTCN31 CWHX 070000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM NDT MONDAY 06 OCTOBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT ...KATE HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 PM NDT... HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 N AND LONGITUDE 54.1 W...430 NAUTICAL MILES OR 800 KM ALMOST DUE SOUTH OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 983 MB. KATE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 31 KNOTS...57 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 06 9.30 PM 38.6N 54.1W 983 70 130 OCT 07 3.30 AM 42.3N 52.2W 987 65 120 OCT 07 9.30 AM 45.5N 49.9W 987 65 120 OCT 07 3.30 PM 48.3N 47.3W 994 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 07 9.30 PM 51.2N 44.4W 994 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 08 3.30 AM 55.3N 40.4W 994 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 08 9.30 AM 58.1N 35.6W 997 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IS MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. RAIN AHEAD OF KATE MOVED UP ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL IS BECOMING APPARENT FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGERY MONDAY EVENING. THE MAIN BOUT OF HEAVIER RAINS WILL SHOULD RECOMMENCE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 100 MM IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA. AS A RESULT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. KATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TO KEEP GALE FORCE WINDS AWAY FROM THE ISLAND...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TRACK MIGHT RESULT IN GALES BRUSHING THE AVALON PENINSULA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY MARINE WIND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND MARITIMES WEATHER CENTRES REMAIN IN EFFECT AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THOSE CENTRES SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR UPDATES. KATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GRAND BANKS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 METRES ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS EAST OF THE STORM TRACK. SWELLS OF 4 TO 5 METRES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH FACING COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE STORM CENTRE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE OF HURRICANE KATE IS BECOMING EXPOSED AS CONVECTION ERODES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MARKING THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTRE BUT HAVE COOLED TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SIGNIFYING THAT CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED THERE. B. PROGNOSTIC MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 30 DEGREES. WE EXPECT A 30-40 DEGREE HEADING TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE THE FLOW IS HIGH AMPLITUDE AND THE SURFACE CENTRE WILL MOVE TOWARD LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE HEADING WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. A PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF KATE AND IS THE CAUSE FOR CONCERN REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALLS. A CONTINUATION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CORE WINDS. STRONG WINDS WELL EAST OF CANADIAN WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A WHILE AS THE REMNANT STORM SQUEEZES UP AGAINST A LARGE HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. C. PUBLIC WEATHER HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE DAMAGING. D. MARINE WEATHER NOTE: RADII OF GALES AND STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER TO THE LEFT OF THE STORM TRACK THAN THIS TABLE SUGGESTS..DETAILS OF THE MARINE WIND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE FORECAST UNDER HEADER FPCN20 CYQX. WIND RADII WILL BE FINE-TUNED IN THE NEXT ISSUE AT 3:30 AM NDT TUESDAY. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 07/00Z 150 150 100 120 60 60 60 60 30 30 30 20 07/06Z 150 165 100 110 80 80 80 55 25 25 25 10 07/12Z 150 180 100 100 100 100 100 50 20 20 20 0 07/18Z 150 190 125 100 85 100 100 40 0 0 0 0 08/00Z 150 200 150 100 75 100 100 30 0 0 0 0 08/06Z 150 250 175 100 60 100 100 25 0 0 0 0 08/12Z 150 300 200 100 60 100 100 30 0 0 0 0 END BOWYER/FOGARTY