WTCN31 CWHX 070600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM NDT TUESDAY 07 OCTOBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT ...HURRICANE KATE HEADING TOWARD THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.30 AM NDT... HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 N AND LONGITUDE 52.3 W... ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL MILES OR 575 KM SOUTH OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 987 MB. KATE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 39 KNOTS...72 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH OCT 07 3.30 AM 41.5N 52.3W 987 65 120 OCT 07 9.30 AM 45.0N 50.1W 990 65 120 OCT 07 3.30 PM 48.5N 47.3W 991 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 07 9.30 PM 51.9N 44.5W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 08 3.30 AM 55.5N 40.6W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE IS MAINTAINING A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA TONIGHT ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING WELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE KATE. THESE RAINS WILL END AROUND MIDDAY AS THE CENTRE OF THE STORM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON. AN ADDITIONAL 25 TO 50 MM (1 TO 2 INCHES) IS POSSIBLE. LOCAL THUNDERSHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS THE WARM AIR OF THE HURRICANE CLASHES WITH THE COLDER AIR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND WILL NOT AFFECT THE ISLAND HOWEVER GUSTY NORTHERLIES WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING OVER THE AVALON AS THE CENTRE OF KATE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE GRAND BANKS. GALES WARNINGS EXTEND FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LAURENTIAN FAN. KATE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ONTO THE BANKS AS A HURRICANE BUT WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW HURRICANE FORCE AS IT CROSSES THE REMAINDER OF THE BANKS. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 10 METRES ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM TRACK. SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 METRES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH FACING COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH THE STORM CENTRE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING A CLASSICAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION IS STILL HANGING ON NEAR THE CENTRE BEFORE SATELLITE ECLIPSE. THE MOISTURE CHANNEL TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CENTRE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH NO EASTWARD MOTION. HEAVIEST CELLS OF RAIN APPEAR JUST EAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA BY ABOUT 50 KM. HOLYROOD RADAR AND AMSU POLAR SATELLITE RAIN RATE ALGORITHM SHOWS UP TO 10 MM/HOUR IN THE FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. QUIKSCAT WINDFIELDS LATE MONDAY SHOW A DISTORTED WIND FIELD THAT IS SKEWED TO THE EAST OF THE STORM OWING TO RAPID STORM MOTION AND TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40-45 KNOTS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ATOP OIL RIGS ON THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE. B. PROGNOSTIC VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STORM AS A HURRICANE IS WEAKENING..REMEMBER THAT THE RAPID SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGH WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK. KATE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS. WIND SPEEDS AT 100 METRES ABOVE SEA SURFACE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 30 KNOTS HIGHER THAN AT 10 METRES. THUS..70-80 KNOT ANEMOMETER-LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ATOP HIBERNIA OIL PLATFORMS. THE MOISTURE CHANNELTO THE NORTH OF THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS MORNING ON THE AVALON. AS THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. A LARGE HIGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL THEN IMPOSE A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST SENDING THE SYSTEM OVER TO NORTHERN EUROPE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BENEATH WARMER AIR FROM THE STORM ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN CONTINUED RAINFALLS OVER THE AVALON THIS MORNING. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 07/06Z 165 165 100 110 60 70 50 60 30 30 20 20 07/12Z 200 175 150 150 90 120 60 50 20 20 0 0 07/18Z 150 250 175 150 45 120 90 0 0 0 0 0 08/00Z 100 350 200 130 40 120 100 0 0 0 0 0 08/06Z 120 350 200 120 40 120 130 0 0 0 0 0 END..FOGARTY