WTCN31 CWHX 071800
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT TUESDAY
07 OCTOBER 2003.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT

 ... CENTRE OF KATE NOW EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE AREAS ....

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 PM NDT... POST TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
47.3 N AND LONGITUDE 46.8 W... ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES OR 445 KM
EAST OF ST JOHNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. KATE IS
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 47 KNOTS... 87 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
OCT 07  3.30 PM  47.3N  46.8W   989   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07  9.30 PM  51.5N  43.5W   990   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08  3.30 AM  55.0N  39.5W   981   60  111 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

RAINFALL WARNINGS ENDED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF LAND AREAS.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 60 KM/H ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT INTO THE WEST LATER
TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF KATE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

THE NEWFOUNDLAND WEATHER CENTRE HAS ENDED ALL HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNINGS... BUT MAINTAINED A STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS AND GALE WARNINGS IN SOUTHEASTERN
OR EASTERNMOST WATERS.

STORM FORCE WINDS REMAINING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST OF ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF KATE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. GALES WILL LINGER LONGER AS THE STORM
EXPANDS INTO A LARGE POST TROPICAL STORM.

SWELLS ALONG THE SOUTH FACING COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA SHOULD
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

WE CLASSIFY KATE NOW AS POST-TROPICAL AT A STRENGTH OF 60 KNOTS.
POSITION BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

B. PROGNOSTIC
POST TROPICAL KATE IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY NOW AND LIKELY HAS A
SIGNIFICANT TRANSLATION COMPONENT TO THE WINDS RIGHT OF TRACK.
MANY MODELS BEGIN REINTENSIFICATION AS A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SO WE KEEP IT AT 60 KNOTS AS IT
LEAVE THE RESPONSE ZONE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

NONE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
07/18Z  150 250 175 150    45 120  90   0     0   0   0   0
08/00Z  150 350 300 180    40 120 100   0     0   0   0   0
08/06Z  250 450 350 180    40 120 130   0     0   0   0   0

END..BOWYER