WTCN31 CWHX 041913
CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.13 PM AST THURSDAY
04 DECEMBER 2003.

NO ADDITIONAL MESSAGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DECLARED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
20 TO HAVE FORMED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND FORECASTING IT TO
BECOME TROPICAL STORM ODETTE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS FOR THE STORM TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS
REACHING THE CHC RESPONSE ZONE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
A FEW DAYS ON THE VARIOUS ATMOSPHERIC MODELS. MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING A STRONG TO INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF ATLANTIC
CANADA ON THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT ISNT CLEAR WHETHER
THIS SYSTEM WILL ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
WHETHER IT IS THE ULTIMATE FATE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITSELF.
IN EITHER CASE THE FORECAST RESULT IS FOR A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING DETAILED TROPICAL
CYCLONE BULLETINS AT THIS TIME . . . ALTHOUGH THAT COULD CHANGE.

MEANWHILE ATLANTIC CANADA'S REGIONAL WEATHER CENTRES IN FREDERICTON
DARTMOUTH AND GANDER WILL ISSUE APPROPRIATE BULLETINS AND THE PUBLIC
IS ADVISED TO MONITOR THESE BULLETINS IN THE EVENT THAT WARNINGS ARE
REQUIRED.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION....

CANADIAN MODEL OUTPUT FROM LAST EVENING INDICATED A VERY INTENSE
EARLY WINTER STORM FOR THE MARITIMES WHILE A COUPLE OF AMERICAN
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE SOFTENED
SOMEWHAT WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM ARRIVING
LATER THAN THE CANADIAN MODELS.

THE GFS MODEL 850 MB VORTICITY HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM
BEING ORPHANED IN THE SOUTH....POSSIBLY NOT BEING PICKED UP BY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AT ALL. ACCORDINGLY A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CLOSE MONITORING IS WARRANTED.

END BOWYER