WTCN31 CWHX 020000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT SUNDAY 01 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEARLY STATIONARY ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 N AND LONGITUDE 79.2 W... ABOUT 75 NAUTICAL MILES OR 140 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1009 MB. ALEX IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT WILL BEING MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS... 11 KM/H LATER TONIGHT. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 01 9.00 PM 31.5N 79.2W 1009 35 65 AUG 02 9.00 AM 33.0N 78.3W 1004 40 74 AUG 02 9.00 PM 34.1N 76.7W 1002 45 83 AUG 03 9.00 AM 35.7N 74.1W 1000 45 83 AUG 03 9.00 PM 37.8N 70.7W 997 45 83 AUG 04 9.00 AM 40.0N 66.4W 994 45 83 AUG 04 9.00 PM 42.7N 62.0W 992 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 05 9.00 AM 45.5N 54.0W 989 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 05 9.00 PM 49.5N 45.0W 989 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO PUBLIC WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN STAYING OFFSHORE. ON THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO MARINE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY, WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHERN OFFSHORE MARITIMES MARINE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CENTRE BASED ON DATA GATHERED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FROM MIAMI. THIS PUTS THE CENTRE OF ALEX JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. B. PROGNOSTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEARLY STATIONARY AT ISSUE TIME OF THIS BULLETIN. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER GUIDANCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO PICK UP ALEX ON TUESDAY AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE MARITIMES MARINE AERAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF ALEX WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE INITAL MOTION...WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWLY AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. C. PUBLIC WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM NO PUBLIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA AS THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE PROVINCE. RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ESPECIALLY THE AVALON PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 METRES SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK WITH LESSER SEAS NORTH OF IT. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/00Z 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02/12Z 75 75 50 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 80 130 95 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 105 160 130 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 110 185 155 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/12Z 115 190 150 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/00Z 130 185 185 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/12Z 160 185 185 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/00Z 175 180 180 175 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END SZETO/CAMPBELL