WTCN31 CWHX 021200 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT MONDAY 02 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... BUT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TODAY ... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 N AND LONGITUDE 79.3 W... ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES OR 150 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1004 MB. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 02 9.00 AM 31.7N 79.3W 1004 35 65 AUG 02 9.00 PM 32.8N 78.1W 1002 40 74 AUG 03 9.00 AM 34.4N 75.8W 999 50 93 AUG 03 9.00 PM 36.4N 72.3W 996 50 93 AUG 04 9.00 AM 39.0N 67.5W 994 50 93 AUG 04 9.00 PM 42.0N 61.5W 991 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 05 9.00 AM 45.9N 55.0W 989 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 05 9.00 PM 48.5N 49.0W 986 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 9.00 AM 50.0N 40.0W 986 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 9.00 PM 51.7N 30.0W 985 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO PUBLIC WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN STAYING OFFSHORE. ON THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO MARINE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR THE MARITIME MARINE FORECAST...WE MENTIONED GALE FORCE WINDS FOR BROWNS BANK GEORGES BANK AND EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE MARINE AREAS AT 03H00 ADT TUESDAY. LIKEWISE...WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BANQUEREAU AND LAURENTIAN FAN MARINE AREAS AND FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS CENTRE BASED ON DATA GATHERED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FROM MIAMI. THIS PUTS THE CENTRE OF ALEX JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIAMI INDICATES THAT THE CORE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANISED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR. B. PROGNOSTIC TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY AT THE ISSUE TIME FOR THIS BULLETIN. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST BEGINS TO INFLUENCE ALEX AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. GUIDANCE FROM MIAMI STILL SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF ALEX PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA ON THURSDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM NO PUBLIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA AS THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE PROVINCE. RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ESPECIALLY THE AVALON PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. D. MARINE WEATHER GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 METRES SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK WITH LESSER SEAS NORTH OF IT. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/12Z 0 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/00Z 60 60 60 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 80 80 60 30 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 80 80 60 30 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/12Z 100 100 60 30 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/00Z 150 150 75 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05/12Z 180 180 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/00Z 180 180 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/12Z 180 180 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/00Z 180 180 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/ FORECASTER ROUSSEL