WTCN31 CWHX 021800 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT MONDAY 02 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ... TROPICAL STORM ALEX CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 N AND LONGITUDE 78.5 W... ABOUT 110 NAUTICAL MILES OR 200 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 993 MB. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 02 3.00 PM 31.6N 78.5W 993 55 102 AUG 03 3.00 AM 32.9N 77.0W 990 60 111 AUG 03 3.00 PM 34.9N 74.4W 990 60 111 AUG 04 3.00 AM 37.0N 70.9W 986 65 120 AUG 04 3.00 PM 39.7N 65.0W 990 60 111 AUG 05 3.00 AM 41.8N 59.9W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 05 3.00 PM 45.1N 51.1W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 AM 47.6N 46.4W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 PM 50.2N 39.4W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO PUBLIC WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN STAYING OFFSHORE. ON THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO MARINE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY ...THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR THE MARITIME MARINE FORECAST... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGES BANK WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE AREAS... THEN ACROSS THE EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND LAURENTIAN FAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHERE GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS ON THURSDAY...GIVING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO THOSE MARINE AREAS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI... THE STRUCTURE OF ALEX IS EVOLVING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN CHANGES. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE IS NOW EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NO LONGER DROPPING...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM THIS MORNING HAS SLOWED...AT LEAST FOR NOW. B. PROGNOSTIC ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI... ALEX IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH A RELATIVLY DEEP RESERVOIR OF 26C OR WARMER WATER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO ALEX COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ALEX WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.... ALEX IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE IN A MORE CONSISTENT MANNER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/4. ONLY A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND ALEX IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. C. PUBLIC WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM NO PUBLIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA AS THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE PROVINCE. ALEX IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AS A RESULT... RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ESPECIALLY THE AVALON PENINSULA. D. MARINE WEATHER GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 METRES SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK WITH LESSER SEAS NORTH OF IT. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 02/18Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 03/06Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 20 20 0 0 04/18Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 05/06Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 05/18Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 06/06Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 END/ FORECASTER ROUSSEL