WTCN31 CWHX 030000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT MONDAY 02 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ...ALEX SOON TO BECOME A HURRICANE... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 N AND LONGITUDE 78.5 W... ABOUT 85 NAUTICAL MILES OR 155 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 02 9.00 PM 32.3N 78.5W 994 55 102 AUG 03 9.00 AM 34.1N 76.7W 989 60 111 AUG 03 9.00 PM 35.7N 73.8W 986 65 120 AUG 04 9.00 AM 37.6N 69.5W 984 65 120 AUG 04 9.00 PM 40.5N 64.0W 986 60 111 AUG 05 9.00 AM 43.0N 57.2W 989 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 05 9.00 PM 45.8N 50.8W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 9.00 AM 48.2N 44.2W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 9.00 PM 50.6N 38.1W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO PUBLIC WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE EXPECTED FOR NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN STAYING OFFSHORE. ON THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ESPECIALLY THE AVALON PENINSULA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO MARINE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.... HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY ...THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR THE MARITIME MARINE FORECAST... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF GEORGES BANK AND WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE AREAS... ALEX WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE THEN ACROSS LAURENTIAN FAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED. ALEX WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. ..GIVING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO THOSE MARINE AREAS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI... THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PASS INTO ALEX AT 1704Z GAVE A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND RELEASED TWO DROPSONDES THAT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 AND 46 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 50 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A 20 MILE-WIDE CIRCULAR EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SINCE THAT TIME...THE QUALITY OF THE RADAR DEPICTION HAS VARIED...WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL OCCASIONALLY PRESENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS COME UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN TODAY THAT HAS ENHANCED THE CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW. B. PROGNOSTIC ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI... ALEX SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING ALEX TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR AND COLDER WATERS SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKENING TREND. BY 72 HOURS...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD SOON TURN ALEX ON A MORE NORTHEASTLY TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACKS AS ALEX MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT THEN ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UP TO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF OUR RESPONSE ZONE ON FRIDAY. C. PUBLIC WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM NO PUBLIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA AS THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE PROVINCE. ALEX IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AS A RESULT... RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ESPECIALLY THE AVALON PENINSULA. D. MARINE WEATHER GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 METRES SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK WITH LESSER SEAS NORTH OF IT. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 03/00Z 80 90 50 30 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 03/12Z 90 90 50 30 30 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 04/00Z 100 90 50 40 30 30 30 30 20 20 0 0 04/12Z 110 100 60 40 50 30 30 30 20 20 0 0 05/00Z 120 100 60 50 50 30 20 40 0 0 0 0 05/12Z 150 110 60 50 60 40 20 40 0 0 0 0 06/00Z 180 120 70 70 70 50 20 40 0 0 0 0 06/12Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 07/00Z 180 120 70 90 90 60 20 40 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL/LAFORTUNE