WTCN31 CWHX 030600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT TUESDAY 03 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...ALEX STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS NORTH CAROLINA... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 N AND LONGITUDE 77.7 W... ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES OR 120 KM SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 987 MB. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS... 15 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 03 3.00 AM 33.2N 77.7W 987 60 111 AUG 03 3.00 PM 34.8N 75.7W 983 65 120 AUG 04 3.00 AM 36.5N 72.6W 983 65 120 AUG 04 3.00 PM 37.9N 68.1W 985 60 111 AUG 05 3.00 AM 40.6N 61.8W 990 55 102 AUG 05 3.00 PM 43.5N 54.4W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 AM 46.4N 47.8W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 PM 48.3N 40.9W 995 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 07 3.00 AM 49.4N 33.1W 996 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON THURSDAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK AND WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK AND WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE AS WELL AS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE. MORE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ON THURSDAY AS ALEX MOVES ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS DEVELOPED A 10 NAUTICAL MILE DIAMETER EYE ALONG WITH A SURFACE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE AS WELL AS DOPPLER DATA AND RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS. B. PROGNOSTIC INITIAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ALEX SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SITUATION GETS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THAT AS ALEX MOVES NORTHEAST. TWO SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARISE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS..INCLUDING THE GLOBAL.. ARE SUGGESTING A WEAKENING IN THE UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ALEX SLOWING DOWN WITH A SLIGHT TURN EAST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO ALEX WOULD EVENTUALLY START ACCELERATING NORTHEAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY ONCE THE UPPER FLOW REGAINS ITS STRENGTH. THIS FIRST SCENARIO WOULD MEAN THAT ALEX WOULD TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO AFFECT CANADIAN WATERS. THE SECOND SCENARIO KEEPS ALEX ON MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE PATH WITH THE UPPER FLOW NOT WEAKENING AS MUCH AS IN THE FIRST SCENARIO. BOTH CASES HAVE ABOUT EQUAL CHANCES OF HAPPENING AND BECAUSE THE SECOND SCENARIO IS SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC...MEANING THAT IT WOULD BRING ALEX CLOSER TO OUR WATERS AND ITS EFFECTS SOONER...WE CHOSE TO FOLLOW THIS SECOND SCENARIO WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. C. PUBLIC WEATHER ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRACK IS VERY SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AVALON PENINSULA ON THURSDAY ALEX SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. FOR NOVA SCOTIA THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM ALEX SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES BY EARLY THURSDAY..BUT THAT SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE EVOLUTION OF ALEX BECOMES CLEARER. D. MARINE WEATHER GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING. THOSE WINDS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT MUCH OF THE GRAND BANKS LATER ON THURSDAY WITH GALES LIKELY REACHING THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE AREAS OF SOUTH COAST AND EAST COAST. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 03/06Z 75 90 50 30 30 30 20 20 0 0 0 0 03/18Z 90 90 60 60 40 40 30 30 20 20 0 0 04/06Z 90 90 60 60 40 40 30 30 20 20 0 0 04/18Z 100 100 60 60 40 40 30 30 0 0 0 0 05/06Z 100 100 60 60 40 40 30 30 0 0 0 0 05/18Z 100 300 100 100 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0 06/06Z 120 300 120 120 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 150 300 150 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/06Z 150 300 150 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END LAFORTUNE/CAMPBELL