WTCN31 CWHX 040000 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT TUESDAY 03 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT ... HURRICANE ALEX MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 N AND LONGITUDE 73.7 W... ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES OR 185 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS... 157 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 972 MB. ALEX IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 03 9.00 PM 36.0N 73.7W 972 85 157 AUG 04 9.00 AM 37.3N 70.0W 976 80 148 AUG 04 9.00 PM 38.4N 65.7W 983 70 130 AUG 05 9.00 AM 40.0N 60.5W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 05 9.00 PM 42.4N 55.0W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 9.00 AM 44.8N 49.5W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 9.00 PM 45.8N 45.3W 996 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 07 9.00 AM 46.4N 42.0W 996 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 07 9.00 PM 46.8N 38.2W 997 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ...THE REMNANTS OF ALEX ARE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT ... PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY GIVE RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY OVER THE AVALON. AS A RESULT HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ESPECIALLY THE AVALON THURSDAY NIGHT. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STORM WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK AND WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE. GALE WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK AND WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE AS WELL AS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE. MORE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THURSDAY AS ALEX MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE ALEX IS A CATEGORY-TWO STORM AT FORECAST TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM AND THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER BENEATH AND AHEAD OF ALEX AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF STREAM. B. PROGNOSTIC ALEX WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. IT WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY THEN REMAINAS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT CONTINUES ON A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS THE NEWFOUNDLAND GRAND BANKS THEN OUT OF THE CHC RESPONSE ZONE. NOTE THAT ALEX WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN TROPICAL-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA... WHICH WE INTERPRET AS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE ALEX. WE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THAT TREND BY SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF EXTRATROPICAL STORM ALEX AND KEEP THE TRACK NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AVALON PENINSULA TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY OVER THAT REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. IN THE MEANTIME NOVA SCOTIA MAY RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS WHEN ALEX PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ... BUT WE EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. D. MARINE WEATHER GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ALEX... WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT.. THEN ACROSS THE NEWFOUNDLAND GRAND BANKS. IT SHOULD GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 6 TO 8 METRES SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH LESSER SEAS NORTH OF IT. HOWEVER... AS A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 10 METRES SOUTH OF THE HURRICANE TRACK (WELL OUTSIDE OF CANADIAN WATERS) WITH LESSER SEAS NORTH OF IT. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 04/00Z 90 90 75 50 60 50 30 30 30 30 20 15 04/12Z 90 90 75 50 60 50 30 30 30 30 20 15 05/00Z 100 100 80 60 50 40 30 20 10 20 0 0 05/12Z 120 110 90 70 40 40 20 20 0 0 0 0 06/00Z 120 110 90 70 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 06/12Z 100 100 70 60 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/00Z 100 100 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/12Z 100 100 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08/00Z 100 100 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END ROUSSEL/FOGARTY