WTCN31 CWHX 040600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT WEDNESDAY 04 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...HURRICANE ALEX HEADING EAST NORTHEAST...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MARINE DISTRICTS... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 N AND LONGITUDE 71.9 W... ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES OR 550 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS... 148 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975 MB. ALEX IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS... 33 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 04 3.00 AM 36.7N 71.9W 975 80 148 AUG 04 3.00 PM 38.4N 67.8W 980 75 139 AUG 05 3.00 AM 40.2N 63.1W 983 70 130 AUG 05 3.00 PM 41.9N 58.1W 986 65 120 AUG 06 3.00 AM 43.7N 51.8W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 PM 44.6N 45.3W 989 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 07 3.00 AM 44.9N 35.9W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND BUT NO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED YET. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR THE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR UPDATES AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL WARNINGS AND AMOUNTS FOR THE AVALON. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK AND WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK..WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE..EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND LAURENTIAN FAN. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HALVES OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS. STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST GRAND BANKS. HIGH SEAS OF UP TO 14 METRES ARE EXPECTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE DISTRICT OWING TO RESONANT WAVE GROWTH. SEAS WILL BE MUCH LESS (UP TO ABOUT 4 METRES) OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE MARINE DISTRICT GENERALY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS ALEX IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND IS BEING GUIDED SWIFTLY TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. ALEX REMAINS OVER WATER GREATER THAN 26C. CORE CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG AND A SOLID BAND OF CLOUD HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF ALEX WITH CIRRUS SPREADING WELL NORTH OVER NOVA SCOTIA. B. PROGNOSTIC TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS TRACK IN LINE WITH NHC TRACK. HOWEVER..EVEN THOUGH THE TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ISSUE..THE STRONG WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH IN THE WIND RADII TABLE TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A QUICKLY-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GEM REGIONAL SLP CENTRE SEEMS A BIT FAST BUT THE SHAPE OF THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS REASONABLE ..PARTICULARLY LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GALE WARNINGS STILL EXIST FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TRACK IN CASE THE STORMS MOTION CHANGES. C. PUBLIC WEATHER HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING AS ALEX BECOMES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX. SWELLS OF NEAR 2 METRES MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THURSDAY AND THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 04/06Z 80 100 75 50 40 50 40 20 15 40 30 15 04/18Z 40 150 120 25 20 75 60 10 10 40 25 10 05/06Z 20 200 150 10 0 100 75 0 0 40 20 0 05/18Z 20 200 150 10 0 100 75 0 0 25 10 0 06/06Z 20 200 150 10 0 100 75 0 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 10 180 135 0 0 80 65 0 0 0 0 0 07/06Z 0 160 125 0 0 60 55 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY