WTCN31 CWHX 041800 CCA CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 04 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ....CORRECTION TO ALEX POSITION AT 3.00 PM AUG 4TH... NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 N AND LONGITUDE 68.3 W... ... HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 N AND LONGITUDE 68.3 W... ABOUT 225 NAUTICAL MILES OR 420 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980 MB. ALEX IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 04 3.00 PM 37.7N 68.3W 980 75 139 AUG 05 3.00 AM 40.0N 63.1W 987 65 120 AUG 05 3.00 PM 42.1N 56.5W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 AM 44.0N 49.7W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 PM 45.2N 43.2W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 07 3.00 AM 44.9N 29.0W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND BUT NO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED YET. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR THE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR UPDATES AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL WARNINGS AND AMOUNTS FOR THE AVALON. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK..WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE..EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND LAURENTIAN FAN. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF GEORGES BANK ..WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE..EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND LAURENTIAN FAN. A GALE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS. STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST GRAND BANKS. GALE WARNINGS STILL EXIST FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TRACK IN CASE THE STORMS MOTION CHANGES. HIGH SEAS OF UP TO 14 METRES ARE EXPECTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE DISTRICT OWING TO RESONANT WAVE GROWTH. SEAS WILL BE MUCH LESS (4 TO 5 METRES) OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE MARINE DISTRICT GENERALY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CORE OF ALEX WHILE FRONTAL-LIKE FEATURES PERSISTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. A CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ALEX IS DRIVEN TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR ALEX AS IT MOVES OVER WATER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 26C. B. PROGNOSTIC THE TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. CHC TRACK FOLLOWS THE NHC TRACK FROM MIAMI. ALEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. THE REMNANT OF ALEX WILL ACCELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM OUR RESPONSE ZONE. THE CANADIAN GEM MODEL OFFERS SOME CONSITENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND PROVIDES A REASONABLE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK. ALEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH THE DEEP STEERING WINDS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. IT APPEARS THAT ALEX WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION VARIES DEPENDING ON MODEL. WE BELIEVE THE WARM CORE OF ALEX MAY REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT THIS HYBRID STORM MAY NOT COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IT EXITS THE GRAND BANKS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL CYCLONE PHASE SPACE EVOLUTION. ALEX WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ALONG THE EDGE OF 26-DEGREE WATER UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN IT CROSSES THE LABRADOR CURRENT. THIS ESSENTIALLY MEANS THAT A TIGHT WIND CORE WILL PERSIST FOR A WHILE YET. C. PUBLIC WEATHER HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING AS ALEX BECOMES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS PREDICTED FOR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING BUT THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SWELLS OF NEAR 2 METRES MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THURSDAY AND THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 04/18Z 60 150 100 100 40 90 50 15 10 40 25 10 05/06Z 60 150 100 120 30 90 30 60 10 40 20 10 05/18Z 60 150 100 120 30 90 30 60 0 0 0 0 06/06Z 60 150 100 120 30 90 30 60 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 60 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 07/06Z 60 150 100 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/ ROUSSEL