WTCN31 CWHX 050600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT THURSDAY 05 AUGUST 2004. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...HURRICANE ALEX INTENSIFIES TO MAJOR HURRICANE..EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS THURSDAY EVENING... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 N AND LONGITUDE 62.9 W... ABOUT 295 NAUTICAL MILES OR 545 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 957 MB. ALEX IS MOVING EAST AT 24 KNOTS... 44 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 05 3.00 AM 39.5N 62.9W 957 105 194 AUG 05 9.00 AM 40.7N 59.5W 965 95 176 AUG 05 3.00 PM 42.1N 55.8W 973 85 157 AUG 05 9.00 PM 43.8N 50.9W 980 75 139 AUG 06 3.00 AM 44.7N 46.0W 987 65 120 AUG 06 9.00 AM 45.8N 41.1W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 06 3.00 PM 46.4N 35.6W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY ALTHOUGH ALEX WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND..RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE WITH MOISTURE FROM THE HURRICANE FEEDING INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS THIS EVENING. AMOUNTS COULD REACH 30 MM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AVALON. THE PUBLIC CAN EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SWELL NEAR 2 METRES IS EXPECTED. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY ALEX IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LAURENTIAN FAN THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MARINE DISTRICTS THIS EVENING. HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN..SOUTHERN HALF OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO NEAR 10 METRES OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS THIS EVENING. SEAS NEAR 7 METRES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST SECTION OF LAURENTIAN FAN THIS AFTERNOON. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE ALEX IS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED ANNULAR TYPE HURRICANE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NO NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE STORM OWING TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WINDS TO THE NORTH. ALEX IS MOVING AT A SIMILAR SPEED TO THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN SHEAR VECTOR..THEREFORE THE STORM- RELATIVESHEAR REMAINS SMALL. ALSO ALEX REMAINS OVER 28 DEGREE WATER. B. PROGNOSTIC MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT ALEX WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE CURRENT TRACK WITH A HEADING OF APPROXIMATELY 65 DEGREES. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE 26 DEGREE WATERS BENEATH ALEX FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 15 HOURS..ALEX WILL NOT LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS AND OVER THE LABRADOR CURRENT THIS EVENING. ALEX SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL (I.E. EXTRATROPICAL) AS IT EXITS THE CHC RESPONSE ZONE FRIDAY MORNING. C. PUBLIC WEATHER CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AS ALEX MERGES WITH A FRONTAL ZONE JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN BURIN PENINSULA AND OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AVALON WITH POTENTIALLY 30 MM OF RAIN. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 05/06Z 80 150 130 70 50 80 60 50 30 50 30 20 05/12Z 80 150 130 70 50 80 60 50 30 50 30 20 05/18Z 75 160 130 60 45 75 55 40 25 35 20 15 06/00Z 50 175 130 50 40 70 50 30 20 25 15 0 06/06Z 40 185 140 40 25 85 65 0 0 20 15 0 06/12Z 30 200 150 30 0 80 75 0 0 0 0 0 06/18Z 20 180 150 30 0 80 75 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY